There’s a new TNS – BMRB poll out. It will make for grim reading for the Blues, all the other parties will be delighted. Labour haven’t slipped, the Yellows have nearly seen their support up by nearly 50% from 7% to 10%, UKIP up 1% and nearly polling double the Lib Dems score. TNS BMRB interviewed a representative sample of 1,190 people between 30th May and 3rd June 2013. Putting these figures through electoral calculus, shows a Labour a majority…
With all the recent weeks discussions about David Cameron’s leadership ending this parliament, the one thing that has crossed my mind is that if David Cameron is replaced as Tory Leader during this parliament, can the party, the coalition and the country cope with a long drawn out leadership contest? The 2001 Tory Leadership election lasted just over three months, from William Hague’s resignation on June the 8th, to IDS being declared the winner on September the 13th and The…
There’s a piece by Benedict Brogan in this morning’s Telegraph about Michael Gove, where he writes about Michael Gove as a possible contender to replace David Cameron. Earlier on this year he became the first Tory Cabinet minister to cross the rubicon, and announce he’d vote to leave the EU, something that will go down with some members of the Tory party, who ultimately have the final say on the Tory leadership. As also Benedict Brogan notes, his recent attack…
Voters for the last few years have said the economy is the most important issue facing Britain. Last night we had a survation poll for Labourlist which shows That nearly half of all voters (46.8%) believe that Labour “cannot be trusted with the economyâ€. Less than one-third (30.1%) believe that Labour can be trusted with the nation’s finances. There is further evidence that Labour isn’t trusted with the economy, as there is polling that shows that a plurality blame Labour…
This article was started on the Friday after the local elections (May 10th 2013) and was prompted by a discussion on the BBC Northern Ireland edition of the Sunday Politics the previous weekend about the chances of a UKIP breakthrough in the Assembly. UKIP (the United Kingdom Independence Party) appear to have broken through into the political mainstream following the local elections last week and yet at the same time one thing appears clear, they are not as United Kingdom…
@msmithsonpb @dpjhodges Done! — Harry Phibbs (@harryph) June 2, 2013 My wager with ConHome Harry Phibbs I’m still on holiday in Italy but that didn’t stop me getting into a wager challenge last night on Twitter with ConHome’s Harry Phibbs on the outcome of the general election. My reading is simple: this is all about the 2010 Lib Dem voters who made up just under one quarter of the electorate that day. Unless there’s a massive turnaround it’s highly unlikely…
There’s a new survation poll out, the fieldwork was the 30th of May. Whilst the changes are sub margin of error, the 2% gap between the Tories and UKIP that existed in the last two Survation polls has now become a 5% gap, which will be a relief to the Conservatives, but this another poll showing UKIP in the 20s. Labour will be delighted that they maintain their significant lead. The supplementaries on Cameron’s holiday and Cameron’s abilities to…
The Tory leadership. What do you think will happen before the general election? There will be NO leadership challenge. Cameron will lead his party at next general election There’ll be a leadership challenge. CAMERON will win There’ll be a leadership challenge. THERESA MAY will win There’ll be a leadership challenge. MICHAEL GOVE will win There’ll be a leadership challenge. PHILLIP HAMMOND will win There’ll be a leadership challenge. WILLIAM HAGUE will win There’ll be a leadership challenge. BORIS JOHNSON will…