Polling carried out BEFORE the news of Nadine’s reinstatement And Ukip voters weren’t that keen on the prospect of her switching My whip has been restored with no conditions other than those which apply to any party MP. Work continues as normal — Nadine Dorries MP (@NadineDorriesMP) May 8, 2013
EdM and Dave almost have the chamber to themselves twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2013 @dpjhodges , who writes almost exclusively on EdM, has agree to double up our wager on which’ll get most seats @ GE2015. He says CON, me LAB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2013 The initial bet was for £50 – a straight even money wager. Now Dan and I have agreed to raise that to £100. Labour don’t even need to win…
28% of the 60+ group but just 6% of the 25-39s This poll is the first one to be published where all the fieldwork took place after the results of Thursday’s local elections became known. There’s one slight caveat. Polling that takes place over long holiday weekends can sometimes produce odd results. With this one YouGov started on Bank Holiday Monday. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB Honoured to be ‘followed’ by @msmithsonpb -psephological…
In the first full YouGov poll carried out after the locals UKIP move to highest level with the firm CON 29%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 16% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2013 But Farage’s party would still get zero MPs Feeding tonight’s YouGov into the Electoral Calculus HoCpredictor we get a LAB majority of 108. Ukip on zero seats twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2013 The Electoral Calculus Commons seat predictor has been revised to factor…
Ukip now odds-on favourite to win most votes at Euro2014.Best price Ladbrokes 4/5. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2013 My money would be on the 6/4 LAB bet The multi-member party list electoral system used in the European elections is ideally suited to Ukip where it’s party brands that matter over the individuals who get elected. It is no surprise that in the elections that have been held under these rules that the purples have done well….
And Labour’s chances of a majority are put at 81% It’s May 7th which means that it is exactly two years before the before the date laid down in the legislation introduced in October 2010 as the day of the next general election. There are provisions for this to be earlier but as long as the polling suggests that both coalition partners would get a drubbing it’s hard to envisage the circumstances in which this might happen. This extraordinary partnership…
We were so swamped with reaction to the locals on Saturday that I missed what appears to be a new polling series from YouGov for the Times. Rather than the weekly YouGov “like/dislike” “doing well/badly” ratings the Times questions askes whether people have a positive or negative view if the named leaders. I think this format is a much better guide and it an approach is used quite widely in the US. Let’s hope that the Time/YouGov continues with it….
Tomorrow it will be exactly 6 months since @nadinedorriesmp was suspended as a CON MP. Farage is making overtures. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2013 It’s starting to appear “nasty” that the whip has not been restored to @nadinedorriesmp . — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 4, 2013 It’s time to “Free the Mid-Bedfordshire One” In 2008 the county council in Bedfordshire was abolished so it wasn’t one of the traditional shire counties where there was voting last Thursday….