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Month: May 2013

LAB lead down to just 3 percent with Ipsos-MORI

LAB lead down to just 3 percent with Ipsos-MORI

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The Ipsos-MORI voting figures showing LAB with bigger lead amongst all who had voting preference.Ukip on 11% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013 Even with LAB’s down to 34% with a 3% lead they’d still get an overall maj Electoral Calculus goo.gl/kvYwh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013 Update – the latest Ipsos-MORI leader ratings Latest leader ratings from Ipsos-MORI with Farage out scoring all. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013

YouGov appears to have changed the way it deals with Ukip and is now prompting for the party

YouGov appears to have changed the way it deals with Ukip and is now prompting for the party

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Bigger YouGov shares for Ukip coming up?They appear to now include Ukip in first prompt. See this from @redukipper twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013 If the firm’s critics are correct then expect bigger Ukip shares Above is a screen shot of YouGov polling questionnaire which shows that Ukip is now included in the prompt on the main voting intention question. Until now those polled wanting to say Ukip have had to click the “some other party” option…

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Britain is a how many party system?

Britain is a how many party system?

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Harry Hayfield’s historical prespective The main news narrative over in recent days has been “Britain is a four party system country” following the success of UKIP in the county council elections, I, however would counter that by saying “Britain is in fact a thirteen party system” and hasn’t been a four party system for well over twenty years Parties that have scored more than 1% of the national vote at a UK general election since 1950 Great Britain only 1950:…

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Why I am betting that the Conservatives have a better than 9pc chance of winning most votes at the 2014 Euros

Why I am betting that the Conservatives have a better than 9pc chance of winning most votes at the 2014 Euros

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Last week in a thread on which party would come out with most votes at next year’s Euro elections Richard Nabavi suggested that the best value bet was the 10/1 which is still available from Ladbrokes on the Conservatives. His reasoning was that these are a set of elections where the Tories have traditionally done well irrespective of how they’ve been performing in national Westminster polls. Even, as the interactive chart above shows, in the dark days for the party…

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ICM sees Ukip double its April share to a record from any firm of 18 percent

ICM sees Ukip double its April share to a record from any firm of 18 percent

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Farage’s party hits record high with any pollster This evening ICM phone poll for the Guardian is the first survey we’ve had from any firm other than YouGov since Ukip performance in the May 2 local election. The figures above are sensational. ICM the firm that had Ukip with the lowest shares now has them with the highest. Each of the three main parties drops 4% compared with a month ago. The firm has confirmed to me that there has…

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If Clegg does move on my money would now be on Tim Farron

If Clegg does move on my money would now be on Tim Farron

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Michael Gove’s claims about plots to overthrow Clegg haven’t impacted on the betting.Tim Farron still 5/2 favourite twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 13, 2013 He had a good Reynard-gate and Vote2013 aftermath After Michael Gove’s little mischief yesterday in which he talked of a plot to oust Nick Clegg it is probably a good moment to look at the Lib Dem succession. The electoral process involves the party’s MPs making the nomination but the decision being down to a…

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The harsh fact for the Tories is that parties that appear divided get punished by the voters

The harsh fact for the Tories is that parties that appear divided get punished by the voters

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Welcome to a week that looks set to be dominated by Tory divisions on Europe.Familiar? goo.gl/wOAWX twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 13, 2013 The Indy on Sunday’s John Rentoul summed this up well in an excellent blog yesterday:- “That’s the news list gone for most of the week, as the vote on the symbolic Eurosceptic amendment in the Commons will wipe out most else, not least because of the unfamiliarity of a whipped abstention by government ministers. What are…

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Nadine says Dave should dump Nick for the party with zero MPs. Isn’t the reverse more likely?

Nadine says Dave should dump Nick for the party with zero MPs. Isn’t the reverse more likely?

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Nadine says Dave should dump LDs &get into bed with Ukip.Only problem: LDs57 MPs, UKIP 0. goo.gl/IwfWg. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 12, 2013 If Dave followed Nadine & dumped LDs for Ukip then Nick could do reverse. CON MPs+Ukip MPs=305. LAB MPs+LD MPs=313. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 12, 2013