Social conservatives are the key swing vote of the moment When David Cameron was Leader of the Opposition, he put a great deal of effort into detoxifying the Conservative brand – the analysis being that in order to gain an election-winning coalition, the Conservatives needed to pull swing centrist voters from both Labour and the Lib Dems. In as far as it went, that was true but it was far from the whole picture. By going out of his way…
The money goes on Phillip Hammond for next CON leader.Hills move his price from 10/1 to 8/1. May is 4/1 Boris 5/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2013
Henry G Manson on those FOR the EU This week we’ve seen growing numbers of politicians past and present suggest that they’d be prepared to vote for Britain to leave the European Union in a referendum. Public opinion is currently leaning towards exit. The Prime Minister has declared he wants Britain to remain within the EU on new negotiated terms, but his own party is so divided that he can’t be relied upon to make a passionate case for this….
I’ve just put a bet on at Ladbrokes on 2013 general election at 16/1. Hard to see how the CON & LDs can divorce without early election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013 A 16/1 bet equates to a 5.8% chance of a 2013 general election. I think chances might be higher. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013 Coalition breakup = Early general election The main story in the Times this morning is a report that…
Harry Hayfield’s guide to the action Coker on Somerset (Deferred Election) Last Council Election (2013): Con 28, Lib Dem 18, Lab 3, UKIP 3, Ind 2 (Conservative majority of 2) Last Ward Election (2009): Lib Dem 1,454 (45%) Con 1,365 (43%) Green 249 (8%) Ind 131 (4%) Last Ward Election (2009 Notional): Lib Dem 1,687 (46%) Con 1,559 (43%) Green 271 (7%) Ind 151 (4%) Somerset has always been a Conservative / Liberal Democrat battleground going back as far as…
Anti-CON tactical voting could be much greater The big polling news yesterday was that in the Ipsos-MORI monthly phone survey the LAB lead amongst those certain to vote was down to just 4%. Suddenly a glimmer of hope appeared to be opening up for the Tories. Yet when these numbers were put into the Electoral Calculus HoC seat predictor LAB had a majority of 30 with a vote share of just 34%. That is 3% below what the Tories achieved…
This has be said many times before but it is worth emphasising – how UKIP is most popular amongst the older age groups – the segment of the electorate that is much more likely to vote. The chart, based on this month’s Ipsos-MORI data, shows the proportion saying they are certain to vote in each age segment and the proportion saying they would vote UKIP if there was a general election tomorrow. It has been observed in past elections that…
Will this help the Tories win GE2015 or help them lose it? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013