Following on from the release of the ComRes’ European Election VI for Open Europe yesterday, today Open Europe have released the Westminster voting intention poll that was carried out at the same time.

The changes are from the last ComRes online poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror,

The Conservatives will be worried that their polling has slipped into the mid 20s, only six points ahead of UKIP, those survation polls with the Conservatives only 2% ahead of UKIP are looking less like outliers.

Labour will be delighted with their lead nearly doubling from 6% to 11%.

This is UKIP’s joint highest poll rating, and their highest rating with a pollster that past vote weights.

This is UKIP’s highest  ever polling with ComRes.

Baxtering this poll, would lead to a Labour Majority of 110, with Labour on 380 seats, a net gain of 122, The Tories losing a net 94, and ending up with 213 seats.

The Lib Dems would fall from 57 seats to 31.

UKIP would end up with zero MPs.

I have to admit, I’m struggling how to reconcile how this VI matches up with the European Election VI published yesterday.

The differences between Westminster and European intentions are:

Lab -14

Con -5

UKIP +7

LD +8

Others +4

Nick Palmer on the previous thread  wrote

“That’s really the strangest poll I’ve ever seen. With the same sample”

We will have a better idea once ComRes put the full data tables on their website.

Methodology Note:

ComRes interviewed 2,003 GB adults online between 22nd and 24th May 2013.

Data were weighted to be representative British adults aged 18+. Data were also politically weighted to past vote recall.

 

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is currently on holiday