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Month: March 2013

At last! News of the constituency poll I believe I took part in and which is contributing to the Tory gloom

At last! News of the constituency poll I believe I took part in and which is contributing to the Tory gloom

CON 1500 majority that’ll go LAB 7000: the private poll that’s adding to the blue panic.m.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 11, 2013 Was the funder Bedford’s MP, Richard Fuller – majority 1353? Last autumn, for the very first time in my life, I took part in telephone political poll. After having written about polling for years this was a unique experience and I’ve been waiting for the survey I took part in to appear. As I recall the…

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PB’s Peter the Punter marks your card for the Cheltenham Festival 2013

PB’s Peter the Punter marks your card for the Cheltenham Festival 2013

The Annual National Hunt Racing jamboree starts at Cheltenham next Tuesday. It lasts four days and comprises 27 races, each of which can claim to be of championship quality. Mike has kindly invited me to give a suggestion for each race, as listed below. Please don’t treat these as ‘tips’ in the normal sense. When I do put proper tips up on PB, I have invariably backed them myself. That doesn’t apply to these 27, which at this stage of…

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Opinium put Ukip on 17 pc – latest YouGov has it at 12

Opinium put Ukip on 17 pc – latest YouGov has it at 12

@tobyhelm If these numbers were from ICM,pollster for your sister paper the Guardian, this poll would be sensational.They aren’t. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013 Latest YouGov has CON 31, LAB 41, LD 12, UKIP 12 – a LAB lead of 10% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2013 Unlike YouGov Opinium is only online pollster that takes no steps to ensure politically balanced sample. Doesn’t even ask about GE2010 vote — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2013 Ukip…

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Are those green shoots?

Are those green shoots?

Is there a recovery underway and what effect might it have? After a cold and dark winter, the sight of spring flowers defiantly if tentatively piercing the earth and braving the still chill winds is always something to raise the spirits; a pointer to sunnier days ahead.  As with nature, so with economics: recoveries from recessions are usually patchy and slow to begin with but there comes a point where despite the bitter blasts from the continent, growth is at…

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Lord Ashcroft marginals poll out

Lord Ashcroft marginals poll out

New Ashcroft marginals poll points to LAB majority of 84. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013 Ashcroft marginals poll suggests that CON would lose to LAB 93 of its 107 most marginal seats — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013   LDs would lose 17 to CON and 13 to LAB according to Ashcroft marginals poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013   Lord Ashcroft has conducted and published a poll in  213 constituencies throughout Great Britain –…

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ConHome surveys suggests that most CON activists now believe that the next general election is lost

ConHome surveys suggests that most CON activists now believe that the next general election is lost

The Eastleigh third place has just added to the gloom The Times leads on the ConHome survey suggesting that most Tories think #GE2015 is already lost. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013 The Times is reporting that a Conhome survey found that just 7% ofCON members believe that the party come win a majority at #GE2015 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2013 75% of those in a Conhome survey reported in Times believe that Labour,either in coalition…

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