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Month: March 2013

Corporeal asks: Are the Kippers a red herring?

Corporeal asks: Are the Kippers a red herring?

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In case you didn’t notice there was a by-election the other day in Eastleigh, and UKIP did rather well (as did some of our punters). So now is the time to glance ahead at the markets for UKIP at the next general election, namely whether they will win a seat, and their percentage of the overall vote. There’s been quite a colourful cast of parties who’ve had an election night triumph somewhere at sometime: Communists, Respect, Green, the Common Wealth…

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Nick Palmer wonders whether “Compassionate Conservatism” can ever win

Nick Palmer wonders whether “Compassionate Conservatism” can ever win

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Strorm clouds over Westminster via @edwarddocx twitter.com/EdwardDocx/sta… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2013 The fundamentals that the by-election raises The outcome in the early hours of Friday morning prompts a reflection which should cause some discomfort across most of the political spectrum. Is it actually a feasible project for what Cameron has called “compassionate Conservatism” to win a majority? To discuss this, we don’t need to get into the debate whether Cameron is sincere or merely posing to attract…

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The Sept/Oct 2014 Sutton Coldfield by-election: Where Diane James becomes Ukip’s first elected MP?

The Sept/Oct 2014 Sutton Coldfield by-election: Where Diane James becomes Ukip’s first elected MP?

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Andrew Mitchell’s Sutton Coldfield seat – how the votes split at #GE2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2013 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2013 What we need is a contest in a CON stronghold Of all the by-eletions in this parliament what we haven’t seen is one in a rock solid CON stronghold where LAB and the LDs are nowhere. How would Ukip perform in that environment and how would the blue team respond? Well we…

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Eastleigh – the David Herdson view

Eastleigh – the David Herdson view

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twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2013 Who will the UKIP prostest vote unwind to, and how far Nick Clegg and Tim Farron have understandably hailed the Lib Dems’ first by-election win in over seven years as “stunning” and “staggering” respectively – after all, their party has not had much to celebrate electorally since 2010 and a win is a win – but Eastleigh was not a great success for any of the major parties. The Tories had the…

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Now Cameron’s position and future is taking centre stage

Now Cameron’s position and future is taking centre stage

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How serious is failing in Eastleigh for Cameron? This is the Evening Standard’s front page. twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondo… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2013 Ladbrokes make it 1/2 that the LDs will hold onto #Eastleighat #GE2015. The Tories are 2/1 & Ukip 16/1. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2013 Only twice since 1945 has party which has held a seat in an English by-election gone on to lose it at next GE BoltonE’ 60 & Darlington ’83 — Mike Smithson…

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The Eastleigh reaction: Marf and Henry G Manson

The Eastleigh reaction: Marf and Henry G Manson

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Marf thinks it is time to “Hug a Tory” To Henry the lesson is that many voters still hate the Tories David Cameron was chosen to lead the Conservative Party in 2005 because he was seen as a winner. Yet he has not won. He may be Prime Minister but he failed to win an election majority, as did Michael Howard and William Hague before him. We have to go back almost 21 years to the last Conservative majority from…

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The Lib Dems hold #Eastleigh in spite of the massive coverage of Rennardgate

The Lib Dems hold #Eastleigh in spite of the massive coverage of Rennardgate

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What would the #Eastleigh result have been without #Rennrdgate. What did the media coverage do to voting? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2013 How many votes did this all cost? It’s probably no exaggeration for Ukip to claim that they would have won the by-election if it had been restricted just to votes on the day. What we do know is that about a third of all votes had been made by post and that of these the…

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