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Month: February 2013

Corporeal on Country versus Family YouGov Issues Indexes

Corporeal on Country versus Family YouGov Issues Indexes

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A lot of factors go into a voter’s decision of which party (or none) will receive the little mark on the ballot paper next to their name; issues, party image (present and past), local situation are all in the mix somewhere alongside other factors, arguing about the exact recipe keeps professional political scientists (and amateur psephological nerds) in comfortable arguments. For some time now YouGov have been running two types of regular issues polling, one asking which party they support…

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Introducing Diane James – the woman on whom Ukip are pinning their #Eastleigh hopes

Introducing Diane James – the woman on whom Ukip are pinning their #Eastleigh hopes

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Ukip select their candidate for #Eastleigh. So only Labour to go. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2013 Could she make inroads into the Tory vote According the Ukip she’s been chosen for her “Tory appeal” – read all about her here The next few days on PB I’m on the train to Edinburgh in the morning for a three day visit during which I’m doing a presentation at the Scottish Parliament on polling and other matters. I’m really…

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Labour moves to its biggest ICM lead over the Tories since 2003

Labour moves to its biggest ICM lead over the Tories since 2003

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Pie chart showing today’s ICM phone poll with record Ukip share and LAB lead twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2013 ICM finds a LAB lead of 26% (51-25) amongst women but only 7% with men — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2013 All this after Dave’s EU speech and Brussels budget As PB regulars will know I regard the phone polls from ICM as the gold standard so this afternoon’s survey is something of a shocker. The Labour…

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It is being said that the next Pope will be from the developing world

It is being said that the next Pope will be from the developing world

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Pic of Ghanian Peter Turkson who is the 5/2 favourite to become next Pope twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2013 The bookies rush to get prices up following the shock news The people I’ve consulted in the past hour about the forthcoming papal election suggest that there’s a good chace that the next pope will be from the developing world. Ladbrokes make the Ghanian Cardinal, Peter Turkson, their opening favourite at 5/2 while the Sppeccie’s, Fraser Nelson is…

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Could the party of Nigel Farage really end up winning more #Eastleigh votes than Labour?

Could the party of Nigel Farage really end up winning more #Eastleigh votes than Labour?

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Nigel Farage in Eastleigh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2013 There were reports last night of other Eastleigh polls in the field that had the party order at LD, CON, Ukip with LAB in fourth place. Quite what the veractity of that information is I don’t know and in by-elections like this we have to treat reports of unpublished surveys with extreme scepticism. But what has become apparent is that in terms of planning and organisation there are…

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The #Eastleigh battle continues….

The #Eastleigh battle continues….

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Tory poster in #Eastleigh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2013 Meanwhile at the Lib Dem #Eastleigh HQ twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2013 Is the best CON chance in talking up Labour?

Lib Dems have a 3 percent lead in Eastleigh according to new Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday

Lib Dems have a 3 percent lead in Eastleigh according to new Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday

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The LDs take a 3% lead in Survation #Eastleigh by-elecion poll for Mail on Sunday. CON 33: LAB 13; LD 36: Ukip 16. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 9, 2013 And LAB is FOURTH place behind Ukip The second poll of the Eastleigh by-election campaign is just out. It is a telephone poll carried out by Survation for the Mail on Sunday and the broad picture it shows it quite similar to the Michael Ashcroft survey on Thursday night….

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