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Month: February 2013

Farage is going to find it hard NOT being the Ukip candidate in #Eastleigh

Farage is going to find it hard NOT being the Ukip candidate in #Eastleigh

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This surely must be one for the leader to lead On the face of it the Eastleigh by-election is ideal for Nigel Farage and Ukip. His party, one CCHQ official told me this afternoon, is probably better organised there than anywhere else in the UK. Back in May 2012 Ukip fielded candidates in every single seat in the council elections and achieved a vote share in double figures. On top of that there’s the local connection. Farage was a Ukip…

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Eastleigh – the bookies divide. Hills make CON the 1/2 FAV. Ladbrokes the LDs the evens FAV

Eastleigh – the bookies divide. Hills make CON the 1/2 FAV. Ladbrokes the LDs the evens FAV

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Hills make the Tories 1/2 FAV to wn Eastleigh with LDs 6/4. Ukip 33/1 & LAB 100/1. bit.ly/u6wr8r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 Ladbrokes make the LDs evens FAV to hold Eastleigh if there is a by-election.6/4 CONS, 6/1 UKIP, 10/1 LAB. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 Which one has got this right?

If Huhne gets 12 months or more then we could see the first CON-LD by-election spat since the coalition was formed

If Huhne gets 12 months or more then we could see the first CON-LD by-election spat since the coalition was formed

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Huhne pleads guilty. If he’s jailed for a year he’ll lose his Eastleigh seat where LDs had maj of 3,864 at #GE2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 The full Eastleigh result from May 2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 Ladbrokes make the LDs evens FAV to hold Eastleigh if there is a by-election.6/4 CONS, 6/1 UKIP, 10/1 LAB. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 But what about a resurgent Labour?

So what did PBers think will happen in 2013?

So what did PBers think will happen in 2013?

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PB 2013 competition predictions now out (and apols for delay!) (Firstly, apologies to all for the delay in getting these predictions released – I’ve been absolutely flat out at work with year-end and pretty exhausted, so thanks for your patience!) The pundits taking part in PB’s annual crystal ball-gazing exercise, looked at everything from UK leaders at Christmas and the local elections, to key international elections, and predictions for the opinion polls from ICM, with the questions now featuring UKIP…

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Fancy a bet on the number of CON MPs who won’t support Dave on same-sex marriage?

Fancy a bet on the number of CON MPs who won’t support Dave on same-sex marriage?

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Ladbrokes odds on many Tories will vote against/abstain on same sex marriage vote 2/1 0-150, 2/1 151-189, 6/4 181+ bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013 And the latest polling on the issue YouGov finds strong support for same sex marriage – except with CON supporters twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013

Study: Less than one twentieth of Labour’s current polling share is from #GE2010 CON voters

Study: Less than one twentieth of Labour’s current polling share is from #GE2010 CON voters

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Worrying story for LAB that party not picking up enough #GE2010 CON converts.m.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/… . twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013 The red team is too reliant on non #GE2010 voters and LDs There’s some worrying news for Labour this morning from a Fabian society study of the make-up of Labour’s current polling standing. It finds that the total of CON>LAB switchers since May 2010 has been just 400,000 voters. The study found that about 1.4m of thoose currently…

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