PB 2013 competition predictions now out (and apols for delay!)

(Firstly, apologies to all for the delay in getting these predictions released – I’ve been absolutely flat out at work with year-end and pretty exhausted, so thanks for your patience!)

The pundits taking part in PB’s annual crystal ball-gazing exercise, looked at everything from UK leaders at Christmas and the local elections, to key international elections, and predictions for the opinion polls from ICM, with the questions now featuring UKIP for the first time.

Full details of the player-by-player predictions are available here.

UK findings:

• Almost 100% predictions for Cameron and Clegg as PM and DPM at Xmas 2013 (but what numbers will we get in 2014?)
• Ed Balls got an 86% prediction for Shadow Chancellor at Xmas – David Miliband was next with 6%
• Maria Miller is a very strong favourite to retain her post as Culture Secretary, with 80% of responses – way ahead of Jeremy Hunt with just 5%, and a couple of responses each for Greening and Mitchell.

 
In the opinion poll predictions, the average highs and lows for the four main parties were (Lab/Con/LD/UKIP) 44/36/16/13 and 37/29/10/6, with the average for the largest Labour lead being 13 points, and the average smallest Labour lead being 6 points.

Meanwhile in the May local elections, the Conservatives are predicted to lose an average of 266 seats, Labour to gain 370, the Lib Dems to lose 126, while UKIP are forecast to gain 32.

International elections:

• Germany (likely to be 22 Sep) – Merkel is the overwhelming predicted winner with 93%, way ahead of Peer Steinbrück. Barring a major upset, Merkel should secure a third term, the only real question is what the makeup of the coalition will be.
• Italy (24-25 Feb) – much more mixed. Centre-left leader Bersani scores 55%, but Monti (21%) and Berlusconi (16%) also featured. The centre-left’s lead has been eaten into during the campaign, and it’s already looking as though even if Bersani wins the Chamber of Deputies, he may need Monti’s support to get a majority in the Senate.
• Australia (now called for 14 Sep) – this almost split down the middle, with Labor PM Julia Gillard taking 54% of predictions, ahead of the Coalition’s Tony Abbott on 44%. It currently looks as though it will be a comfortable if not overwhelming win for Abbott in the election, but both leaders are struggling with poor approval ratings.

Many thanks and good luck to everyone who took part, and can I wish all punters, posters, and lurkers on PB all the very best for the rest of 2013.

 

Double Carpet (@electiongame)