In the Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday, one of the supplementary questions asked about voting intentions in the 2014 European Parliament elections, UKIP are on the threshold of pushing the Conservatives into third place, the full results are below.

Conservatives 24%

Labour 31%

Lib Dem 11%

UKIP 22%

Paddy Power have a market on which party will be the Largest UK party in European Parliament after the 2014 elections.

Paddy Power are currently offering 3/1 on UKIP being the largest party.

If UKIP did outpoll the Tories, pushing them into third place, then there maybe a pressure on the Tory Leadership, for some official electoral pact between the Tories and UKIP in the 2015 General Election. An electoral pact is something Nigel Farage has raised in the past.

Paddy Power also offer a market on  UKIP and Conservatives publicly confirming an official pre-election pact before the next general election. It is 7/4 that there will be a pact, and 2/5 that there won’t be a pact.

Following on from his past comments on UKIP supporters, this morning David Cameron called UKIP supporters ” pretty odd”, even if this morning’s comment didn’t cause epistemological problems, it won’t help relations between the two parties, and makes it unlikely that a pact will happen, especially under David Cameron’s leadership.

Then again, politics, like war, breeds strange bedfellows, during the 2010 general election campaign, Nick Clegg said that David Cameron has aligned himself with “nutters, anti-Semites, people who deny climate change exists and homophobes” and a few weeks later, he went into coalition with David Cameron

TSE