The Autumn statement – the Marf view
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Osborne’s political task today is to get the blues back into the game
Pie chart showing today’s YouGov poll which has CON just one off its lowest level with pollster twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2012 Today’s YouGov poll has the Tories down at 30% – just one point above their lowest level yet with the firm and 14% behind Labour. Although it is always dangerous reading too much into one single daily poll this latest finding means that the Labour lead has been at 12 or more in five out…
The rise of UKIP: what does it all mean?
By Dr. Rob Ford – University of Manchester As pb.com readers are doubtless aware, the UK Independence Party had their two best ever by-election results in recent weeks – scoring a record 14% in Corby in mid-November, then topping this again with 21% in the Rotherham by-election last week. This sharp rise in support – and the continued polling and by-election misery of the Liberal Democrats – have understandably lead to a lot of discussion. Where is support for UKIP…
The correlation, or lack, of between Lib Dem seat totals and overall vote share achieved 1987-2010
Chart showing how the total of Lib Dem seats has been or not linked to vote share from 1987 – 2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2012 Tonight I’m off to the Political Studies Association annual awards in London. The next thread header is a detailed analysis on UKIP electoral prospects by Doctor Rob Ford, Politics Lecturer at the University of Manchester. He’s currently working on a book with Matthew Goodwin which looks at support for the BNP…
Revisiting the “hung parliament – no coalition” bet
The latest PaddyPower general election outcome prices bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2012 My July 12/1 with Hills looks even better value Before the summer holidays I got £100 on at 12/1 with William Hill that the general election would produce another hung parliament but there would be no formal coalition deal. The price has tightened a fair bit since then and the last time it was up on their web-site it was 6/1. I can’t see…
Marf on today’s Royal Announcement
Hills make it 5-1 that UKIP will win a by-election this parliament
I’d need better odds than that William Hill have put up a new market on whether UKIP, now riding high, will win a parliamentary by-election this parliament, With the election scheduled for May 2015 the by-election would have to occur within the next two years and five months and after the latest crop there are none in the offing. The bet breaks down into two elements – the chances of a suitable by-election coming up and the chances of UKIP…
Grant Shapps’ General Election headache number 1: Keeping the LD 2010 vote up in LAB-CON battle-grounds
2015 could see the return of big-time tactical voting A year before the 2005 general election PB reported on analysis by Peter Kellner which sought to measure the impact of the so called “electoral bias against the Tories” in terms of the Conservative seats the party did not get. The boundaries and unequal-sized constituencies was one factor which Kellner reckoned cost the Tories 21 seats. He estimated that in 2001 there were 10 extra Labour seats in relation to overall…