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Month: December 2012

Sports Personality – who is your money on?

Sports Personality – who is your money on?

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Does the Golden Year have one last surprise in store? Political betting is generally about understanding two things in any particular contest: the candidates and the electorate. So with big TV votes. In the case of Sports Personality of the Year (Spoty), the electorate is particularly important given that the candidates play a largely passive role – what we know about them isn’t likely to change between now and tomorrow night. As things stand, Bradley Wiggins is a very strong…

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On gay marriage Cameron is doing the right thing for the wrong reasons

On gay marriage Cameron is doing the right thing for the wrong reasons

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Henry G Manson on the week’s big issue Prince Metternich supposedly wondered on the death of the French Diplomat Talleyrand: “What did he mean by that?” In this vein it’s worth asking what are the Prime Ministers motives are and what does it tell us about how he sees his and his parties fortunes and future? David Cameron’s support for homosexual marriage is the right thing, yet it seems very odd to me that he has he chosen to do…

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Remember how working family tax credits became so potent in 2010?

Remember how working family tax credits became so potent in 2010?

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Revisiting the last election – the final week With all the argument over working family tax credits I thought it useful to dig up this final week Labour election broadcast from 2010. They also figured heavily in other parts of Labour’s campaigning over those final few days. Whether this specifically was effective is hard to say. What we do know is that Labour’s final vote share was higher than the polls were showing and the party did better than expected…

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Maria Miller now 3-1 favourite with Ladbrokes to be next cabinet exit

Maria Miller now 3-1 favourite with Ladbrokes to be next cabinet exit

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Maria Miller expenses inquiry launched. She’s 3/1 FAV for next Cabinet exit.bbc.in/UFLF5p twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2012 Can she go on implementing Leveson? Yesterday when the Maria Miller expenses story with the apparent threats to the Telegraph broke I considered betting on her for next cabinet exit. Ladbrokes then had her at 12/1 but I held back. Today the price has moved in to 3/1 and she’s become favourite in what is the bookies’ favourite political betting…

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New Ipsos-MORI polling suggests that voters want benefits to go up with inflation – not capped as Osborne wants

New Ipsos-MORI polling suggests that voters want benefits to go up with inflation – not capped as Osborne wants

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59% tell Ipsos-MORI that benefits should rise with inflation not as proposed in autumn statement.See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2012 69% tell Ipsos MORI that rich not doing enough towards helping the economy.See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2012 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Following the voters most likely to switch at the general election – those who went Lib Dem in 2010

Following the voters most likely to switch at the general election – those who went Lib Dem in 2010

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Tracking 2010 Lib Dem voters – the ones most likely to move. Chart showing their views of Dave & Ed. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2012 Today marks the start of a new project on the site – keeping a close eye on those voters most likely to switch at the general election, the 2010 Lib Dems. My intention is to track and highlight relevant polling data for the group because they probably hold the key to the…

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Miliband continues to lead Cameron in the Ipsos-MORI leader ratings

Miliband continues to lead Cameron in the Ipsos-MORI leader ratings

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This month’s Ipsos – MORI leadership numbers – the detail twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2012 And Clegg continues to trail The publication of the monthly MORI poll brings with it the firm’s leadership ratings which have been asked in the same way for 37 years making it by the longest such series in UK politics. The question is whether people are satisfied or dissatisfied which is regarded by leading political scientists as the best format. As can…

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The LAB lead in first telephone poll the month down to 9 percent

The LAB lead in first telephone poll the month down to 9 percent

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Today’s phone poll from Ipsos-MORI – pie chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2012 UKIP up 4 to 7 percent The first phone poll for December, the monthly political monitor from Ipsos-MORI, is out in the Evening Standard. The charts above shows the voting intention split. On leader satisfaction Cameron is down from 40 to 37% since while Ed Miliband is at 40%. Nick Clegg is trailing on 27. The UKIP share in November recorded by the firm…

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