My first Dem nomination 2016 bet: 66/1 on Sen Kirsten Gillibrand of NY – reelected on Tues with 72% of vote twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 9, 2012

Time to start thinking about 2016

There’s always something rather pleasurable about picking, at long odds, a party nominee or a president four years out.

What you need is value – a long shot who might just do it for you. In 2005 I got on Barack Obama at 50/1. My 2012 long-shot, placed in November 2008 at 200/1 was Jon Huntsman for the Republicans and I still believe that he would done better than Romney.

This morning I placed my first 2016 bet. It was on New York Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand, who took over Hillary Clinton’s seat when she became Secretary of State.

One big message from this week’s results is that the woman’s vote is becoming increasingly important and my guess that either the Democratic or GOP nominee will be a woman.

Gillibrand has proved herself to be a hugely effective campaigner and on Tuesday night was re-elected with a stunning 72% of the vote. To put that into context – Obama’s vote share in the presidential election in the state was 62%.

Alas that 66/1 price is no longer available and the best you can get is 50/1 at Ladbrokes.

Mike Smithson

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