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Month: October 2012

Obama’s edge in the battleground states could be down to his superior TV advertising buying operation

Obama’s edge in the battleground states could be down to his superior TV advertising buying operation

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Quite simply Obama is getting far more bangs for his bucks Latest Swing State Polls Here are the latest polls from the battleground states: Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (University of North Florida) Nevada: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (SurveyUSA) Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling) New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen) Ohio: Obama 45%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA) Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 42% (Newsmax/Zogby) Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Rasmussen) Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 42% (Philadelphia Inquirer) Wisconsin:…

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A well received speech from Cameron – but the Tories still have a huge challenge even to win most seats next time

A well received speech from Cameron – but the Tories still have a huge challenge even to win most seats next time

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At the start of the week the President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, declared that the Conservatives would “need a miracle” to win an majority at the next election. As things stand at the moment that must be right. Even protecting the 100 or so gains secured in 2010 is going to be a mammoth task and Labour are firm favourites in the betting to win most seats if not a majority. Yet today’s speech had a lot of merits. Cameron…

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Take the 16-1 “Nationwide vote share winner loses the election” bet

Take the 16-1 “Nationwide vote share winner loses the election” bet

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Nate Silver makes it a 7.9% chance Thanks to TSE overnight for alerting us to this – the new Ladbrokes White House market that the contender securing the highest popular vote winner on November 6th will not win the presidency. The firm is offering 16/1. With the national polls tightening sharply since last week’s debate but with Obama, just, still having the edge in the key battleground states the chances of this happening are probably better than the odds being…

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The SNP loses the battle for a multi-question referendum

The SNP loses the battle for a multi-question referendum

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BBC News But 16 and 17 year olds will be able to vote The BBC is reporting that a broad agreement has been reached between Westminster and Edinburgh on the Scottish independence referendum which is expected to take place in two years time. According to the report “the SNP is understood to have accepted a single question referendum, as opposed to two questions including one on greater powers for the Scottish Parliament, whilst the UK government has abandoned its opposition…

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The Mitt Romney bounce-back on the betting markets

The Mitt Romney bounce-back on the betting markets

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Our weekly national poll for @dkelections finds Mitt Romney leading for the first time all year, 49-47: dailykos.com/story/2012/10/… — PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) October 9, 2012 Could he still unseat the President? The Democratic pollster, Public Policy Polling, has produced the latest national survey that has Romney with a 2% lead. This follows a Pew survey overnight with a Romney lead twice as large. Other polls though, such as the latest Gallup daily tracking with a 5% Obama lead, are telling a…

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The Matt cartoon in the Telegraph that’s not going to please Dave

The Matt cartoon in the Telegraph that’s not going to please Dave

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Telegraph One of the great things about Matt in the Telegraph is that so often he can capture the moment, as he does with his latest this morning, in a way that sums up brilliantly how situations and relationships are being perceived. This is one of his best and will add fuel to what is increasingly becoming the story of the Conservative conference in Birmingham – Boris. It must be infuriating for Cameron yet he has to take it in…

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Boris receives a rock-star type welcome in Birmingham

Boris receives a rock-star type welcome in Birmingham

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Could he possibly be a danger to Dave? I count 13 snappers + 7 TV cameras at Bojo rally. More than 1000 ppl in audience. This is by far the biggest fringe event I’ve ever seen — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) October 8, 2012 Ladbrokes have tightened their Boris Johnson prices as BorisMania takes over the Tory conference in Birmingham. It’s now 2/1 that he’ll be back as an MP before the general election and 2/1 that he’ll become PM. Mike…

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