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Month: October 2012

Main points from tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times

Main points from tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times

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YouGov for the S Times has LAB lead back in double figures -so no CON conference bounce.CON 33%/LAB 43%/LD 10%/UKIP 6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2012 Dave (-20% from -24%) gets small YouGov leadership bounce but still behind Ed (-14%).Clegg is -58% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2012 32% told YouGov that EdM had the most successful conference with 22% saying Cameron and 3% Clegg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2012 YouGov finds that the Tories…

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The US presidential election on November 6th looks set to be the biggest political betting event of all time

The US presidential election on November 6th looks set to be the biggest political betting event of all time

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If the next round of key state polling has Obama behind then Mitt could be favourite With the incumbent continue to make heavy weather in the polls following his disappointing performance in the first presidential debate the election of November 6th is looking nothing like the certainty it appeared less than a fortnight ago. All the recent national polls have had Romney ahead or a tie. The only consolation for the Obama camp is that until now, at least, he…

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Commissioner Boris? Cameron could solve two problems with one move?

Commissioner Boris? Cameron could solve two problems with one move?

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David Herdson looks ahead to 2014 In a little under two years’ time, David Cameron will have to do something no Conservative prime minister has done almost two decades: nominate someone to the European Commission. It’s a decision which is fraught with difficulty on many levels. One possibility speculated upon is that Nick Clegg could get the nod, the thinking being that the move could form part of an amicable separation between the governing parties in the coalition, giving Clegg…

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Obama versus Romney 24 Days to go: The battleground states

Obama versus Romney 24 Days to go: The battleground states

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Ohio (18 electoral college votes) Virginia (13 electoral college votes) Florida (28 electoral college votes) Iowa (6 electoral college votes) This is heading for a very tight outcome and as Nate Silver concludes – Obama’s swing state firewall is very brittle. My current betting position is that I’m on Romney but am “all in the green” at Betfair which means that I don’t lose any money whatever happens. For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and…

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The EU is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize – a round up of the reaction

The EU is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize – a round up of the reaction

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40/1 shot of “the European Union” has picked up the Nobel Peace Prize — Greg Callus (@Greg_Callus) October 12, 2012 Oh dear RT @chrisadamsmkts: Yeuch RT @mnieurozone MERKEL: EURO IS MORE THAN CURRENCY; IT IS A PEACE PROJECT — Fabrizio Goria (@FGoria) October 12, 2012 Looking on the bright side, at least nobody thought of awarding the EU the Nobel Prize for Economics — Greg Hands (@GregHands) October 12, 2012 DC WW1 speech made case for EU nobel prize “However…

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Votes at 16 could now be inevitable

Votes at 16 could now be inevitable

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Henry G Manson on the moves in Scotland The implications and significance of 16 and 17 year olds being entitled to vote in a referendum on Scotland’s independence is waking up politicians from their post-conference stupor. The impending logic is pretty straight forward. How can we justify allowing 16 year olds the right to vote on Scotland’s future, but not on who their local councillor or Member of Parliament might be? There are a lot of things 16 year olds…

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Why Romney is doing far better in national polls than in the battleground states

Why Romney is doing far better in national polls than in the battleground states

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It might be down to Obama’s summer ad offensive So far today there’ve been five national polls on the November 6th election and Romney is leading in four of them. The picture is totally different in polling from the key battle-grounds where Romney’s debate bounce has been much smaller. Why’s this happening? What is different about the states where it matters. There’s an interesting theory by Nate Cohn in the New Republic. “. Simply put: campaigns might matter. There hasn’t…

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