White House punters are sticking firmly with Obama – see chart for Romney price moves of past 7 days twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2012

On Betfair alone there have been £11m of matched bets

The chart is simply showing the Romney price on Betfair expressed as an implied probability.

As can be seen that apart from the Romney bounce on Wednesday ahead of what turned out to be the non-announcement from Donald Trump, things have been static. It’s been about 2/1 Romney and 1/2 Obama.

There are lots of other bets about but the overall winner is the big one.

SportingIndex have been suspending their ECV spread markets overnight but I don’t expect any change from yesterday’s close Obama 291-296.

Ladbrokes have further tightened the price on the ECV winner not coming top in the popular vote. It’s now 5/1.

Mike Smithson

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