There’s a slight narrowing in the polls as well

Generally speaking in US presidential elections there are three points when a challenger can make progress against an incumbent.

Firstly there’s the buzz surrounding the announcement of the V-P nominee; then there is the candidate’s big speech at his convention and thirdly there’s the White House debates.

The first two of those have already happened.

The third of the three takes place tonight at the University of Denver. It starts at 0200 BST and last for 90 minutes. TSE is organising a special thread.

Given that Romney got virtually no boost from his choice of Paul Ryan as V-P and then had the mess-up at the convention he really has to score this evening.

A draw is simply not good enough

Generally the challenger puts on a bit in the polls after the first debate and Team Romney must be hoping that something will happen.

The chart above is from the Irish betting exchange, Intrade, which has a large US following. Other bookmakers rate Obama’s chances a bit higher.

Mike Smithson

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