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Month: September 2012

Day by day how Betfair Romney punters reacted to the GOP convention

Day by day how Betfair Romney punters reacted to the GOP convention

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Historical data from Bestbetting But does Mitt have a better than 35% chance Sometimes betting price change charts can be very telling and the one above shows how the Romney White House race odds changed during the party convention in Tampa last week. The Betfair prices are shown in terms of an implied probability and as can be seen Mitt was having a great convention until the moment he stood up to speak. This all seems to be in line…

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YouGov adds to the pressure on Clegg

YouGov adds to the pressure on Clegg

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Ominous for Clegg? By 47% to 31% LD voters tell YouGov that the party would do better at the election with a different leader. S Times — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2012 Will he still be leader at the general election? With the Lib Dem conference due to start in less than three weeks there’s some new polling tonight that could put more pressure on the party leader, Nick Clegg. The Sunday Times is reporting that in its poll…

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Ignore national White House polling: Ohio is the key

Ignore national White House polling: Ohio is the key

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The state that’s most likely to be the “tipping point” Everything in US presidential election is about the so called “swing states” – the ones that can move every four years and have a huge impact on the overall result. There are about twelve of them and the most important of all is Ohio which, according to the US polling and election expert, Nate Silver has a 30% chance of being the “tipping point” state – meaning that it would…

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Why are Obama’s re-election odds so short?

Why are Obama’s re-election odds so short?

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David Herdson asks “Is Obama really so assured of some swingback?” Conventions come and conventions go.  Providing they go more or less to plan, the candidate will receive a short-term bounce in the polls, some favourable coverage in the media and a reinvigorated campaign.  Such has been largely the lot of Mitt Romney this last week and such will likely be the case for Barack Obama next.  Romney has either closed the gap or taken a slight lead, depending on…

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