LAB YouGov lead down to 6% again CON 34%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 7%.Is the mood turning against Ed’s party? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 5, 2012 Two of the past 3 YouGov polls have had LAB leads down to 6% – and ComRes had it down to 4% when the party leader names were mentioned. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 5, 2012 Could doubts about Ed raise their head again? The first polls of September have seen what…
Hope you can make the next PB gathering Thanks to Fat Steve for once again organising this. We are having another informal get-together at the historic Dirty Dicks pub opposite the main entrance to Liverpool Street station in London. These events have become a regular part of the PB scene over the years and the venue works well. Whatever your connection with PB – whether you are a poster or not – you’ll be most welcome. Put the date in…
Is it wise for Dave to abandon the centre ground? However you view the changes in Dave’s cabinet line-up it’s hard not to conclude that this marks a shift to the right – nowhere more than with the appointment of non-lawyer, Chris Grayling, as the Justice Secretary – taking over from Ken Clarke who, according to the polling, was one of the most popular Tories in the cabinet. This is the judgement of the Spectator’s James Forsyth In policy terms,…
Will it make the blues more popular? The day is going to be dominated by the reshuffle as hour by hour new details emerge. At the moment it’s hard to be confident about the winners and losers and all eyes will be on which of the 2010 Tory intake will get preferment. From what has emerged overnight it seems that Dave has sacked Cheryl Gillan , the Welsh Secretary, Ken Clarke , and Andrew Lansley – the ex-SDPer who was…
And LAB drops 4% when Ed Miliband is named as leader? The Liberal Democrats would significantly improve their prospects at the next general election if Vince Cable replaced Nick Clegg as leader, according to both ComRes phone survey for tomorrow’s Independent and YouGov for the Sun. ComRes asked three VI question:- When the standard voting question was asked 12% said Lib Dem When Clegg was named as leader this rose to 14%. But when the named LD leader was Vince…
Norman Lamb could be the establishment flag-bearer I’m far from convinced that Nick Clegg is about to be ousted or agree to walk of his own accord. He strikes me as an extraordinarily resilient figure and he’ll aim to finish off what he’s started. Having said that I was tempted yesterday by the 16/1 that Ladbrokes was offering on him going during 2012. But if there is a leadership election it’s going to be a bigger challenge for Vince Cable…
There could be less change than expected This is supposed to be the week of the long-awaited reshuffle which will produce the new line-up of ministers who’ll take the coalition partners into the general election. There’s been lots of speculation and, of course, betting particularly on our old favourite – the next cabinet exit markets. If more than one minister goes on the same day then some bookies, though by no means all, will pay out according to their dead…
Minister Net asset/liability Hague +14% Cable -5% Cameron -13% Clarke -15% Lansley -33% May -34% Clegg -41% Osborne -42%