YouGov: Just 5% of Tory voters and 11% of Lib Dems want the coalition to continue beyond the election.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2012

YouGov: 27% of CON voters &13% of LD ones say they would like the coalition to end immediately

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2012

53% of CON voters and 41% of LDs tell YouGov that they want the coalition to end at some point before the general election.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2012

Is Adonis right – people will say “Never again”?

As I reported before the weekend I got a big bet on with William Hill at 12/1 that there’ll be a hung parliament next time but there’ll be no formal coalition involving the Lib Dems and the Tories or Labour.

My sense is that the mood has moved against coalitions in general and if no party gets a majority then the one with most seats will try to operate on a minority basis.

The LAB peer, Andrew Adonis, summed up the mood in a Times interview saying “unfortunately for the future this is not a good advertisement for coalition — people will look back at this and think “never again”.

Polling overnight from YouGov featured in Tweets above shows the lack of enthusiasm amongst Tory and Lib Dem supporters to the coalition and its continuation.

The big question is whether we will see another hung parliament. Labour, this time without a Scottish leader, are going to find it much harder holding onto seats north of the border though they’d hope to win back some or all of the seats lost to the blues in 2010.

Yellow-blue contesst will be hard fought and if anti-CON tactical voting returns, as the Ashcroft polling suggests, then the Tory challenge will be harder.

Based on current trends I’d rate a LAB majority as a 60% chance, with a hung parliament at 38% with a CON majority at 2%.

If the boundary changes go through the Tories would have an easier task.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB