In January punters gave the blues a 42% chance

The first PMQs after the extended break seems a good opportunity to introduce the punters’ general election forecast – something that we’ll come back to repeatedly over the next two and a half years.

The percentages are based on the latest Betfair betting exchange prices. These are calculated by taking the last price traded on the exchange and presenting that as a percentage.

If the total doesn’t add up precisely to 100% it’s because I have not included the “any other party majority” price and because these are based on real bets.

At this stage before an election there is not that much liquidity with few punters being ready to lock cash up long term. But that will change as we get closer to the date.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB