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Month: May 2012

As we await the news from the Crown Prosecution Service….

As we await the news from the Crown Prosecution Service….

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…YouGov points to a 1997-scale LABour landlside Update – Labour lead on 14: Latest YouGov/The Sun results 14th May CON 31%, LAB 45%, LD 7%, (UKIP 8%); APP -42 y-g.co/JPOlcP — YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2012 The YouGov LAB 45% CON 31% split is slightly better for Labour than in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide when the voting wasLAB 44.4% CON 31.4% — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012 Tonight’s YouGov lead for Labour of 14% is the highestrecorded by the…

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Start the week in the PB NightHawks cafe

Start the week in the PB NightHawks cafe

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Join the web’s best political conversation Welcome once again to our overnight thread in the PB NightHawks cafe. According to the site stats there are many more people who lurk and follow the threads compared with those who actually post. Please don’t be inhibited particularly here in the “cafe” and post tonight. Have a good evening. @MikeSmithsonOGH

Kellner says Tory victory the likeliest outcome

Kellner says Tory victory the likeliest outcome

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Peter Kellner says “I still think a Conservative victory is the likeliest outcome in 2015…” bit.ly/JuGAv2 — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012 Interesting article on the latest ratings changes for Ed Miliband and David Cameron on the YouGov site by Peter Kellner. Looking back he notes:- “…In the months leading up to the 1970 election, Wilson’s ratings improved. By election day he was much better liked than Heath. Yet Heath won: Wilson’s mid-term travails had been too profound, and…

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Caroline quits the leadership to help the Greens cash in

Caroline quits the leadership to help the Greens cash in

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Will they capitalise most on the Lib Dem collapse? While UKIP continues to get most attention in the “others” category the organisation in that segment that has been making real electoral progress is Caroline Lucas’s Green Party. Unlike the disorganised purples who failed even to get the UKIP party name onto the ballot papers in London the Greens had a very good May 3rd. Their net councillor total went up by 11 and of course, their candidate in the London…

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Are the Tories trailing public opinion on gay marriage?

Are the Tories trailing public opinion on gay marriage?

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Should the party ignore the activist base? The subject of gay marriage has come to the fore in both the US and in the UK, In the former last week electors in North Carolina voted to amend the state constitution to ban it. A day later Barack Obama said that he was in favour. Here in the UK it’s been a issue particularly within the Tory party and this morning Philip Hammond was on the Marr show expressing his reservations….

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Miliband takes a 6pc net lead in YouGov’s leader ratings

Miliband takes a 6pc net lead in YouGov’s leader ratings

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Ed Miliband overtakes Cameron in YouGov’s leader ratings. He’s on 32% WELL/55% BADLY to Cameron’s 32%/61%. So Ed’s net is -23% to Dave’s -29 — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 12, 2012 LATEST YouGov voting – 31/43/10 with UKIP on 8. Labour maintaining a solid double digit lead.. The LDs up from their low of 7% on Thu to 10 — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 12, 2012 EdM’s net YouGov leader ratings lead of 6% over Dave his best ever position…

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Spain backed to quit the Eurozone

Spain backed to quit the Eurozone

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Will the Euro still exist at the end of 2015? William Hill have reopened their market on which will be the first country to quit the Eurozone – and although Greece remain hot favourites at 1/4, Spain have been slashed from 12/1 to 7/1 third favourite. ‘We suspended the market earlier in the week when punters only wanted to back Greece but with the financial crisis escalating in Spain and the possibility of another Greek election we have decided to…

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Will Hunt have to go?

Will Hunt have to go?

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Is he set to become the 4th cabinet casualty? Rebekah Brooks’ testimony to the Leveson enquiry didn’t produce a smoking gun but will not have been at all comfortable listening for Jeremy Hunt. In particular, the e-mail from Hunt’s advisor looks at best like a private office out of control and gives the suggestion of indirect but improper ministerial contact with News International. However, it is just suggestion rather than established fact and as such we’re into the good old…

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