Following on from the previous thread, does recent polling make a Tory/UKIP more likely or less likely?

POPULUS

It found that only 21 per cent are “positive” about Britain’s membership of Europe, while 31 per cent say they are “negative” and think the country would be better off leaving.

However, 23 per cent who are negative about UK membership still think Britain would be worse off leaving the EU, while 25 per cent do not have a strong view either way.

This means the 44 per cent believing that Britain should stay in the EU outweigh the 31 per cent who want withdrawal — meaning that a referendum victory for an “out” campaign would be far from certain.

Furthermore, 54 per cent of voters said the current eurozone crisis “makes me less confident that the UK could or would prosper if it withdrew from the EU”.

COMRES

26% of Tory voters are “seriously considering” voting for the UK Independence Party.

If a referendum were held on Britain’s membership of the EU, I would vote for Britain to leave the EU

Agree 46%

Disagree 30%

Half (51%) of Conservative voters agree, compared with 42% of Labour voters and 39% of Lib Dem voters.

 

Compare the 54-34% split in recent British Election Study (disapprove-approve of EU membership).

 

Excluding don’t knows, this suggests a 61-39% vote to end Britain’s membership of the EU.

 

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.