Following on from the previous thread, does recent polling make a Tory/UKIP more likely or less likely?
It found that only 21 per cent are â€œpositiveâ€ about Britainâ€™s membership of Europe, while 31 per cent say they are â€œnegativeâ€ and think the country would be better off leaving.
However, 23 per cent who are negative about UK membership still think Britain would be worse off leaving the EU, while 25 per cent do not have a strong view either way.
This means the 44 per cent believing that Britain should stay in the EU outweigh the 31 per cent who want withdrawal â€” meaning that a referendum victory for an â€œoutâ€ campaign would be far from certain.
Furthermore, 54 per cent of voters said the current eurozone crisis â€œmakes me less confident that the UK could or would prosper if it withdrew from the EUâ€.
26% of Tory voters are â€œseriously consideringâ€ voting for the UK Independence Party.
If a referendum were held on Britainâ€™s membership of the EU, I would vote for Britain to leave the EU
Half (51%) of Conservative voters agree, compared with 42% of Labour voters and 39% of Lib Dem voters.
Compare the 54-34% split in recentÂ British Election StudyÂ (disapprove-approve of EU membership).
Excluding donâ€™t knows, this suggests a 61-39% vote to end Britainâ€™s membership of the EU.
Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.