Is the Labour leader now looking like a winner?

Earlier in the week the Speccie’s Fraser Nelson yesterday summed up neatly the Tory view of the next general election:-

“Much of the Cameroon’s re-election hopes are pinned on the idea that their boss will trounce the geeky Ed Miliband. Nowadays, the argument goes, these ex-special advisers who have no charisma and alarming leftist policies just don’t win modern elections.”

That view might have had some merit before George Osborne’s budget in March but I’m far less convinced that’s it’s applicable today.

For the chancellor’s introduction of the lower tax rate for the very rich has framed everything and has taken away the key coalition rhetoric that what’s being done on the economy is because of the “mess left by the last lot.”

It’s hard to conclude other than that George’s gamble has been a massive political mistake which could cost his party dear.

Last Thursday elections simply underlined the polling – the political pendulum has swung back to Labour and we are now less than three years away from the election.

The Tory hopes before Thursday was that Labour would fail to win 700 council seats while Boris Johnson in London and the SNP in Glasgow would knock the gloss off Labour’s performance. Well Miliband’s party chalked up more than 800 gains; the mayoralty election was a whole lot closer than the pundits were predicting and Alex Salmond’s talk of taking Glasgow turned out to be ill-judged hubris.

Ed Miliband, for the first time in his leadership, is starting to look like a winner and that trumps his geeky looks every time.

The chances for Ed becoming the next PM must be increasing all the time. Labour will rightly take heart from the events in France and judging from reports of last night 1922 committee Cameron is facing problems with his own party.

Ladbrokes are offering 6/4 that Ed Miliband will become PM before 2020. That looks a good bet.

@MikeSmithsonOGH