What’ll a victory next week do to his leadership ambitions?

If both the national and London polls are reflected in next week’s London and national elections then Boris Johnson will be one of the few prominent Tories with something to smile about a week today.

On a night that’s likely to see huge Tory losses, including possibly to their coalition partners the LDs, Johnson will have held on completely against the mid-term national trend. The message from City Hall will be loud and strong for the only way that Boris has been able to defy political gravity because he has special qualities not found at Number 10.

Fairly or unfairly Boris’s performance will be compared with Dave’s and, no doubt we’ll have people saying that the national party could do better if led by the mayor.

What could be electric is if a by-election vacancy comes up in a Tory seat. You can hear the speculation that Boris should put his name forward.

Yesterday Dan Hodges suggested the the best mayoral outcome for Dave would be a Ken victory. I think he’s right.

PaddyPower is offering 7/1 that next Tory leader is not someone currently in parliament – that sounds like a fair price and the bet would cover you for more than Boris.

@MikeSmithsonOGH