From an 8% Florida lead to an 8% deficit in just three days The big news in the fight for next Tuesday’s GOP primary in Florida is that there’s been a huge turnaround in the polls. The most startling movement has come with Insider Advantage which on Sunday evening, in the aftermath of Newt’s stunning victory in South Carolina, had the ex-house speaker at Newt 34% to Mitt’s 26%. Since then there’s been a debate and and a huge negative…
Twitpic What do we think of this spoof? I think its fun and certainly gets over a lot of the emotional case on one side. Quite a few betting markets are being established but given the time-scale there’s nothing that I can recommend. I like to bet on something and see an outcome in weeks not years. Have a good night in the cafe. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
Is he getting his mojo back? After the drubbing he’s been getting in the media and appalling personal poll figures Ed Miliband finally came back with a decent PMQ performance. He’s cut the jokes and is working on his speaking style. At the end of one or two of his questions he lowered his voice which was quite effective. He can sometimes sound as though he is screeching. He also kept his temper down. He had good material to play…
The chances are a lot tighter than that Ladbrokes put up a market overnight on there being a brokered convention to choose the GOP 2012 nominee for the White House. The opening price was a mouth-watering 20/1 It then soon moved to 16/1 and by the time I became aware of it the price was down to 10/1. Even though it’s an eventuality that rarely happens it’s being talked about a lot at the moment following South Carolina and the…
The row over Iowa moves up another notch For those like me who are battling with Betfair over the Iowa caucus outome I’ve now dug up what could be helpful evidence. Betfair is claiming that the statement on election night by Matt Strawn, the Chairman of the Iowa Republican party, was the official announcement and that their pay-out decision was based on that. I have now dug out the Strawn statement to reporters which included this key qualification which I…
Now Ipsos-MORI has him below Nick Clegg The January Reuters/MORI poll is just out and there’s more bad news for the Labour in the leader ratings. The net figures are featured in the chart above. On voting intention, however, CON has lost its lead. These are the figures with changes on December – CON 38% (-3): LAB 38% (-1): LD 12% (+1). That December poll was carried out in the immediate aftermath of the Brussels veto. This means that we’ve…
Betfair Politics Inevitably there’s been movement on the London mayoral betting following the YouGov and ComRes polls whih both had Ken narrowly ahead. But based on Betfair prices Boris is a 60% favourite with Ken at 40%. There’s clearly a long way to go. The best bookmaker price you can get with Boris is 8/13 while Ken can be had at 13/8. The election takes place in May. Betfair still undecided on Iowa The betting exchange has yet to follow…
Betfair Politics A guest slot by Tim Trevan (TimT) Pundits both sides of the Atlantic gave Romney the GOP nomination two weeks ago. PB’s own survey had close to 90% saying it was his, with most saying he would win both Iowa and New Hampshire in addition. At the time, I railed against such implied certainty, saying that Paul would win Iowa, Romney New Hampshire and Newt the nomination. I did so not because I was sure that would be…