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How seriously should we take election speculation? Several bookmakers this morning have tightened the price against a 2012 general election as talk mounts of the coalition breaking up and a possible confidence vote. The key to all of this is whether one or more of the coalition partners wants it. For the Tories it would mean fighting on the 2010 boundaries which, as we saw then, led to the blues winning just 306 of the MPs against 344 non-Tories. This…

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Enter’s PB’s By-election prize prediction competition As mentioned on the previous thread Ladbrokes have agreed to provide a prize of £200 of free bets to the winner our PB’s prediction competition on Thursday’s Feltham & Heston by-election. The timing of the election, within a week of the PM’s dramatic night at the EU summit in Brussels, means that we’ll get an electoral reaction which might provide good pointers to the future. Today’s Times reports a Populus poll taken from Friday…

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Who’ll win £200 of free bets with Ladbrokes? Ladbrokes have been very generous and have agreed to put up a prize of £200 of feee bets for the PB Feltham by election competition. Details will be announced tomorrow and you’ll have until 2300 on Tuesday to get your prediction in by posting on a thread that will be published during the day. What I’m looking for is help in recording the entries onto a spread-sheet. This would have to be…

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Henry G Manson puts forward his curriculum There is a rare moment of consensus in British politics right now. It’s not over the deficit, Europe or reforming the health service. It’s about teaching young people about odds in the classroom and Gove and Twigg are in agreement . If forewarned is forearmed then I think it’s a very good idea. It set me thinking what should they teach? Gove can have these for free from me: 1. It’s about percentages…

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More good news for UKIP As well as the big night in US politics there’ve been a number of new polls overnight including the first voting intention response following Cameron’s use of the veto in Brussels. YouGov Sunday Times: CON 38: LAB 39: LD 11 The fieldwork took place from Thursday to Friday afternoon so only part of the response came after the news from the EU Survation Mail on Sunday: CON 35: LAB 35: LD 14: UKIP 9 All…

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” How’ll Newt cope now he’s in the lead? Welcome again to the PB overnight thread in the PB NightHawks cafe. Get the coffee on because those who can stay up late are in for an interesting evening and, I suspect, a fair amount of betting activity. The big event is what looks set to be the most important debate so far in the Republican race to become the party’s White House nominee next year. It’s taking place in Iowa…

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But voting intention numbers are pretty steady There’s a new online poll just published by ComRes for the Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror. The voting intention numbers are in the chart and show only margin of error changes on the same poll a month ago. The big change is in the ComRes leader approval ratings when respondents are asked to agree or disagree whether Dave/Ed/Nick are turning out to be a good PM/LoTO/DPM. It should be noted with…

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Will the words translate into action? Margaret Thatcher famously once said that there is no way in which one can buck the markets, a fact of life that the Eurozone has finally woken up to and sought to address with a stringent set of rules for countries operating in the Eurozone, including constitutional commitments to keep structural deficits below 0.5% of GDP, submitting national budgets to Brussels for approval and sanctions for those who fail to meet their targets. This…

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