May 7th 2015 must now be pretty certain

Last night the coalition five-year fixed-term Parliaments Bill completed its final stages in the House of Lords after peers dropped an attempt to include a provision under which would mean it would have to be renewed after every election. A compromise was reached under which a committee will be set up to look at the workings of fixed-term Parliaments in 2020.

For gamblers this means that the next general election is now a near certainty for May 2015 and there’s been a rush overnight to get money on. At the time of writing all the traditional bookies who have markets are offering prices longer than evens against 2015.

I soaked up everything above evens on Betfair.

The Bill fixes the date of the next General Election at 7 May 2015, and provides for five-year fixed terms. It includes provisions to allow the Prime Minister to alter the date by up to two months by Order. There are also two ways in which an election could be triggered before the end of the five-year term:

• if a motion of no confidence is passed and no alternative government is found
• if a motion for an early general election is agreed either by at least two-thirds of the House or without division

Both those exceptions look reasonably remote to make betting on 2015 worthwhile.

New Ipsos-MORI poll CON 35 (+1): LAB 37 (-3): LD 13 (-2). This will be covered more fully when the detailed figures are published.

@MikeSmithsonPB