Is there money to be made from the big day?

Novelty bets are rarely worth looking at. Frequently there are huge overrounds in markets more designed for publicity than serious punting. Still, unlike more mainstream markets, there can be large disparities between the different bookies, so where’s the best value for today?

The first market to be settled should be that of their title. The sons of the monarch or heir apparant usually receive a dukedom when they marry (which in this case would prevent Kate becoming Princess William). The dukedom of Cambridge is a strong possibility but not attractive at the 4/7 Paddy Power is offering (and no-one else seems to be). Sussex at 11/2 has more going for it, although it’s worth remembering that while it’s traditional for a title to be conferred, it’s not guaranteed.

One market for which ‘form’ may offer some guide is the colour of the Queen’s hat. Yellow seems to be overwhelming favourite and there’s justice in that. Even so, green at 12/1 with Ladbrokes and turquoise at 20/1 with Coral are worth considering.

The time of Kate Middleton’s arrival offers some attractions, though the various firms have different definitions. Bet365 are offering 4/1 that she will set foot outside the Abbey before 11am. As she’s arriving by car, the whole thing is choreographed in great detail and arriving outside the Abbey early isn’t the same as going into the Abbey early, there may be some value there. Alternatively, Ladbrokes have 100/30 that she will enter the Abbey ‘on time’.

There are various markets on the length of her train. While it’s unlikely to be on the scale of Diana’s, the setting and the occasion lend themselves to spectacle. The 9/2 Paddy Power’s offering on 5.01m to 8m looks quite interesting and I could well see it towards the lower end of that range.

Finally, one ‘special’ I’d pick out is for Kate to get William’s names in the wrong order, available at 16/1 with Paddy Power. Diana famously did this and William, like his father, has four names. I’m not sure there’s much value in that but nerves can do strange things to even the most accomplished public speakers – as Barack Obama demonstrated when he fluffed his inaugural oath.

Good luck, and enjoy.

David Herdson