Time to be getting your money on – methinks

The first YouGov poll in April on the May 5th devolved general election in Scotland is out and shows a continuation in the trend away from Labour and to the SNP.

CONSTITUENCY VOTE

SNP: 40% (n/c)
Lab: 37% (-2)
Con: 11% (n/c)
Lib Dem: 8% (+3)
Other: 4%

The big move, and that featured in the chart, has been in the regional vote where the SNP is up three and Labour down six.

REGIONAL LIST VOTE

SNP: 35% (+3)
Lab: 33% (-6)
Con: 12% (n/c)
Lib Dem: 7% (+2)
Green: 6%
Other: 7%

Alex Salmond’s party now has a clear lead in both the constituency and regional list sections and according to estimates from Professor John Curtice stands to win 55 seats – six ahead of Labour with the Tories on 16, the Lib Dems on 6 and the Green party on 5.

This is a big change on the situation as it looked only a couple of months ago and the bookies have been slow to catch up.

Overnight I got two bets on the SNP to win most seats with Bet365 at 7/4 and 11/8. Other firms have this priced tighter so things will almost certainly move very quickly.

My main caveat is that Scottish polls generally have a history of over-stating the SNP. Currently this is mitigated to some extent by the very excellent numbers that Salmond has when pollsters ask who would make the best First Minister. YouGov has this at Salmond 52% to Labour’s Iain Gray at 27%.

Mike Smithson