Libya – How’s it all going to end?
SkyNews
Could Boris versus Ken save the taxpayer GBP32m?
Why not switch mayoral elections to FPTP? On May 3rd next year more than one in eight of UK adults will be able to vote in what is the biggest election before the general election. At stake is a position that arguably has more political power than anyone apart from the prime minister. With Ken bidding to return to his old job and Boris trying to hang on in less than clement conditions for the blues this will be a…
Why’s the government looking like a shambles?
Would it have been better under Coulson? It’s half term, parliament’s not sitting, and most people in the Westminster village, it seems, are taking a short break. But does that explain the total Horlicks that the government’s PR machine is making of current events. There’s a massive global story with strong British links and the government operation should, surely, appear as though it is handling things competently. Most people, I’d suggest, appreciate how challenging it must be dealing with Libyan…
Penddu on that other referendum…in Wales
Yes – No – Quick Quick -Slow It is part of Britain’s unwritten constitution that referendums are held whenever there is a constitutional issue at stake that crosses party lines. So this begs the question why the Welsh Powers referendum being held on March 3rd is being held at all. This referendum is not on a major constitutional change as Wales has had primary law-making powers since 2007, and the issue at stake is only a technical one as to…
Who’s got most to worry about with their leader ratings?
The above are from this months Ipsos-MORI monitor for Reuters and records the trends in the leadership approval ratings for Dave/Ed/Nick. I tend always to focus on the satisfaction numbers which have been a good predictor for general elections over the three decades that MORI has been asking these questions. The trends are in the charts above. Mike Smithson
Ipsos-MORI has 12 point YES lead amongst those certain to vote
And it’s no change on standard voting intention In its first public survey on the coming referendum the February MORI monitor for Reuters has YES on 49% and NO at 37% amongst those who say they are certain to vote. So far we have only seen the headline figures and I’ve no idea about the form or wording of the AV question. The firm always restricts its headline figures to those who say they are certain to vote and we’ll…
Tonight’s PAPA – the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average
Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % ICM/Guardian 20/02/11 35 38 18 9 Populus/Times 06/02/11 36 39 11 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 23/01/11 ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 36 42 11 11 YouGov/Sun 23/02/11 36 44 11 9 Angus Reid/ 10/02/11 34 40 11 15 ***PAPA*** LATEST 35.4 40.6 12.4 11.6 With every new poll PAPA – the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average gets updated and can be found on its own dedicated page. It’s not often…
Has YouGov’s AV polling question been overtaken by events?
Shouldn’t last week have led to a re-wording? This is the precise wording of the YouGov AV referendum question that was asked yesterday and the results published last night. “The Conservative-Liberal Democrat government are committed to holding a referendum on changing the electoral system from first-past-thepost (FPTP) to the Alternative Vote (AV) At the moment, under first-past-the-post (FPTP), voters select ONE candidate, and the candidate with the most votes wins. It has been suggested that this system should be replaced…