David Cameron David Cameron “doing well/badly†(YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 45(-1) 96 9 76 Badly 48(+2) 3 89 23 Ed Miliband Ed Miliband “doing well/badly†(YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 33 (+5) 17 66 32 Badly 43 (-6) 66 20 55 Nick Clegg Nick Clegg “doing well/badly†(YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 30(nc) 63 4 74 Badly 60 (nc) 27 92…
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording ComRes/Indy on Sunday 14/01/11 36 30 “At present, the UK uses the first past the post system to to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the Alternative Vote System be used instead? “ YouGov/Sun 10/01/11 32 41 Bespoke wording – see below Angus Reid/ 07/01/11 37 20 “At present, the UK uses the first past the post system to to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should…
 What’s changed since May? Ed Miliband’s call to disaffected Lib Dems to join him and Labour in opposing the government is hardly surprising: if successful, it would increase his base, split one of the coalition parties and undermine the government. That said, if he had really been serious about wanting to work with the Lib Dems, why was he – a member of Labour’s team – so cold about the idea in the post-election negotiations, as both Peter Mandelson…
Just how untouchable is the City? The explanation that the global recession was caused by a crisis in the banking industry has been oft-repeated by politicians over the last three years. It’s understandably attractive for them to do so. Not only is it a simple, plausible account of the cause of the problem but it also means that it’s neither their fault nor that of the general public. Consequently, bankers have had something of an image problem – and still…
One of the big movies that’s just gone on general release in the UK is “127 Hours” which was produced by my brother, John Smithson. Six years ago he won the BAFTA for best British film with “Touching the Void” 127 Hours, based on a true story, has become notorious for its key scene when a man, trapped by a boulder, has to amputate his own arm to save his life. And the betting implications – it might feature in…
Thanks to John Loony for the bar chart. Mike Smithson
Populus cross party splits CON 2010 % LAB 2010 % LD 2010 % CON by-election 46 2 3 LAB by-election 12 89 31 LD by-election 34 3 55 Or was the party churn more complicated than that? In the aftermath of the OES result a widespread assumption has developed that all the Tory votes lost last night went to the Lib Dems. This looks a simple straightforward answer and apparently explains everything. But does it? For the Populus poll of…
Oldham East & Saddleworth: the result Labour 14,718 42.1 Lib Dem 11,160 31.9 Conservative 4,481 12.8 UKIP 2,029 5.8 BNP 1,560 4.5 Others 982 2.8 Labour Majority 3,558 Double Carpet The results for the Election Game are available here – well done to Raymond Kelly and Robert Barnsley who tied for the win.