Is it between between him, Hari and Pascoe-Watson?

Ladbrokes report that within a few hours of the book opening on Coulson successor Guto Hari was backed from 6/1 into 3/1 and George Pascoe-Watson was also slashed from 10/1 into 5/1.

The favourite Ian Birrel was also the subject of a significant wager from a previously dormant account nudging his price into 5/4 (from 6/4) causing several raised eyebrows. Does somebody know something?

Ben Brogan has drifted from 4/1 to 8/1 with Paul Staines currently the rank outsider at 200/1.

A spokesman for the firm said: “We’ve had this book open for under 24 hours and we have already been inundated with money for three market principles including one very intriguing wager on the favourite Birrell. It looks like a three way shootout at the moment but there are bound to be more twists and mystery gambles as this unfolds.”

With this sort of betting you really don’t know unless you are part of the closely-knit Number 10 team. I was impressed by the big Birrell wager but you can easily be misled by these things. I’ve put on a bet on him though.

Latest prices
Ian Birrel – 5/4 (from 6/4)
Guto Hari – 3/1 (from 6/1)
George Pascoe-Watson – 5/1 (from 10/1)
Trevor Kavanagh – 7/1
Ben Brogan – 8/1
Danny Finkelstein – 8/1
David Yelland – 14/1
Tom Bradby – 16/1
James Landale – 14/1
Steve Hilton – 20/1
Fraser Nelson – 20/1
Rebekah Brooks – 25/1
Iain Dale – 33/1
Nick Robinson – 40/1
Adam Boulton – 66/1
Piers Morgan – 66/1
Richard Royal – 80/1
David Williams – 100/1
Paul Staines – 200/1

The betting exchange, Smarkets, have also got a market up with a reasonable amount of liquidity.

Mike Smithson