Oldham E betting	LABOUR	LIB DEMS	TORIES
Ladbrokes	2/9 (1/7)	9/2 (5/1)	10/1
William Hill	1/5 (1/7)	4/1 (7/1)	10/1 (8/1)
Victor Chandler	1/6	6/1	10/1
Smarkets	0.31/1	100/15	10/01/10
Betfair	30/100 (1/5)	24/5 (10/30)	81/5 (7/1)

Doubts about Tory commitment sends punters to the yellows

There’s been quite a lot of movement on the by-election markets in response to the growing narrative that the blues are not really trying – reinforced during the afternoon by ambivalent comments from the PM.

So of the biggies the William Hill LD price tightened from 7/1 to 4/1 with Labour moving out a touch though still heavy odds on favourites. Ladbrokes and Betfair saw the same pattern though not on the same scale.

What we don’t know is quite how the seat’s Tory voters will react to the comments coming from the leadership. This is the key issue of the election and the yellows tell me (they would wouldn’t they?) that they are finding the blues to be much more receptive than they expected. Will that translate into enough votes to make up for expected losses suggested by the national polling?

With hundreds of activists heading to the seat this weekend my guess is that many of them will enter the markets in the coming days.

Bookmakers links:
Ladbrokes
William Hill
Victor Chandler
Smarkets
Betfair

Mike Smithson