It’s almost no change with ICM

It’s almost no change with ICM

Poll/publication End date CON (%) LAB (%) LD (%)
ICM/Guardian 24/10/10 39 36 16
ICM/NOTW 22/10/10 40 36 16
ICM/Sunday Telegraph 07/10/10 38 34 18
ICM/Guardian 29/09/10 35 37 18
ICM/Guardian 15/08/10 37 37 18
ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19
ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16
ICM/Guardian 20/06/10 39 31 21
ICM/Guardian 23/05/10 39 32 21
ICM/Sunday Telegraph 13/05/10 38 33 21

Opposition to the cuts doesn’t seem to be affecting voting intention

The first of two telephone polls that are expected tonight, ICM for the Guardian, is now out and shows numbers that are almost exactly the same as the NOTW/ICM poll reported on Saturday night.

Whatever voters might feel about the cuts and the planned implementation there’s still clear water between Labour and the Tories with the yellows unchanged on 16%.

The detail of the poll was not as encouraging for the blues as Julian Glover writes:-

“More people now oppose coalition plans for cuts than support them. Some 48% of all voters say the cuts go too far, 36% think the balance is right and 8% want them to go further..Public backing for cuts has fallen steadily since July, when a total of 55% thought the balance was either right or cuts should go further. In September, the figure was 47%. Opposition to the scale of cuts has risen from 38% in July to 43% in September and 48% now.”

There is due to be a Populus poll in the Times. When that comes through this post will be updated.

But Labour take the lead with Populus

Poll/publication End date CON (%) LAB (%) LD (%)
Populus/Times 24/10/10 37 38 15
Populus/Times 12/09/10 39 37 14
Populus/Times 23/06/10 39 33 18

The latest Populus poll is only the third national voting intention survey from the firm to be published since the general election and gives a slightly different picture although well within the margin or error on all three party shares.

This is the first time that Labour has been in the lead with the firm since November 2007 and that will surely cheer the Ed Miliband camp.

Broadly all three parties are in the same sort of areas with both pollsters who operate in very similar manners. In May the two firms finished with the same ranking of second equal in the polling accuracy table.

SECOND UPDATE: Latest YouGov/Sun daily poll voting intention: CON 40%: LAB 40%: LD 11%

Mike Smithson

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