++++Labour have a 3 point lead with Angus Reid++++

++++Labour have a 3 point lead with Angus Reid++++

Poll Date CON LAB LD
Angus Reid/S. Express 01/10/10 35 38 16
BPIX-YouGov/Mail on Sunday 01/10/10 41 37 13
News International/YouGov 01/10/10 39 41 11
ComRes online 01/10/10 39 36 15
ICM 29/09/10 35 37 18

The polling give a very mixed picture

We’ve now picked up two other polls that are in today’s Sunday papers and they give a differing picture of public opinion in the wake of Ed Miliband election to the Labour leadership and last week’s Labour conference.

The biggest surprise given its pre-election polls is from Angus Reid which in the Sunday Express has Labour with a three point lead.

This contrasts sharply with BPIX, which operates on the YouGov platform, which has the Tories with a four point lead.

All but one of the polls since Ed Miliband’s election have been carried out online. The exception was ICM.

UPDATE on Angus Reid: My understanding is AR past vote weighting now based on how panellists said they voted in post-May 6 poll. This deals to a large extent with the potential false recall issue that I repeatedly flagged at the time.

Mike Smithson

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