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Month: September 2010

Sean Fear asks: Why did the Tories fall short in London?

Sean Fear asks: Why did the Tories fall short in London?

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Are there lessons for next time? Labour’s relatively strong performance in London was one of the most surprising outcomes of the general election. Prior to this election, Yougov had had an excellent record of predicting election results in London, and were forecasting a swing of 5-6% in favour of the Conservatives. On the day, the swing was just 2.5%. Overall, the outcome was not as bad for the Conservatives as it might have been. The party picked up some of…

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Could Tory rebels block the AV bill?

Could Tory rebels block the AV bill?

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And what would that do to the coalition? According to stories in the Independent and the Spectator, there are a number of Tory MPs (Bernard Jenkin and Daniel Kawczynski are suggested as ringleaders) who will vote against the Coalition government in today’s vote on the bill that provides for a referendum on AV next May. Some are ideologically opposed to anything that threatens FPTP, some object to the impact of holding it on the same day as the Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish…

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“What to look for in the autumn”

“What to look for in the autumn”

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Millais “Autumn Leaves” (Wikimedia Commons) A round-up of the international scene It’s been a busier August than usual, with the Labour leadership contest and the Australian election, but things will step up a couple of gears this month as politicians return from holidays, parliaments reconvene, and politics returns in earnest for the autumn. Taking its cue from the iconic Ladybird books series (more at bottom), these are a few things “to look out for” as the autumn unfolds. Australia (voted…

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Is Ed Miliband’s ‘Change to Win’ argument right?

Is Ed Miliband’s ‘Change to Win’ argument right?

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And either way, will it win him votes? One of the interesting developments in the Labour leadership race is the extent to which Ed Miliband is marketing himself as the ‘change’ candidate. The word is all over his campaign website. The BBC is reporting a YouGov poll publicised by his campaign team in which 72% of people considering voting Labour would be less likely to do so if the new leader continues to tread the New Labour path (curiously, there…

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Will Farage be the comeback kid?

Will Farage be the comeback kid?

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  Or has he built up too many negatives since he quit? Former UKIP leader Lord Pearson’s decision to resign the leadership on the grounds that he was “not much good” at party politics was a refreshingly candid appraisal of his abilities. That’s opened up the prospect of his predecessor, Nigel Farage, returning to the post he held for three years. During that time, UKIP enjoyed its best ever result, in the European elections, when they polled 16.5% of the…

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Has the Coulson-saga got legs?

Has the Coulson-saga got legs?

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What is this story really about? I’ve been re-reading the Guardian story about the phone-hacking at the News of the World, as reported in the New York Times extraordinary feature. Even allowing that we had a full-scale spread on the story by the Guardian earlier this year, this story has not been altogether drowned out by the Hague-Myers story or the launch of Tony Blair’s book. The BBC and ITV are both leading with the story this evening. I am…

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The PB AV debate: Part 2

The PB AV debate: Part 2

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Rod Crosby puts the case for voting YES Theoretical Case Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem states that no (#1) voting system can be totally fair when choosing between more than two candidates. Selecting a single-winner voting system therefore depends on which aspects of fairness we consider more important than others. FPTP’s unfairness has been understood for centuries, and its most deprecated flaws are:- 1) failing the Majority Loser Criterion. FPTP can elect the candidate whom the overwhelming majority of voters wish to…

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