Tories hit 42 pc in first post-budget poll

Tories hit 42 pc in first post-budget poll

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Fieldwork Pollster/publication CON LAB LD
22-23 June YouGov / Sun 42 34 17
20-21 June YouGov / Sun 41 33 18
18-20 June ICM / The Guardian 39 31 21
18-20 June Ipsos MORI/Reuter 39 31 19
17-18 June YouGov / Sunday Times 39 34 19
16-17 June ComRes / Indy on Sunday 36 30 23
10-11 June YouGov / Sunday Times 40 32 18
10-11 June BPIX (YouGov) / Mail on Sunday 39 32 19
1-9 June Harris/Metro 36 30 25
28-31 May ComRes / The Independent 37 33 21
21-23 May ICM / The Guardian 39 32 21
20-21 May YouGov / Sunday Times 39 32 21
13-14 May YouGov / Sunday Times 37 34 21
12-13 May ICM / Sunday Telegraph 38 33 21
12-13 May ComRes / Indy on Sunday 38 34 21
  General Election GB figures 37 29.7 23.6

And the yellows take the hit with YouGov

There’s a new poll for the Sun from YouGov which was taken after the budget and has very good news for the Tories both on the voting intention shares and on the the measures themselves.

As I observed yesterday polls that are taken in the immediate aftermath of budgets should be treated with a bit of caution because they always tend to favour governments. It can take a few days before the overall impact sinks in.

It will be interesting to see how the party standing are at the weekend and next week particularly from the telephone pollsters.

The Lib Dem will be disappointed by their small share which might be affected by YouGov’s new weightings – see below.

The sample split 53% – 28% when asked whether the measures were good or bad for the economy. The coalition is also doing well on who is to blame.

Responsibility for cuts?  
Conservative – Lib Dem coalition 18
Last Labour government 49
Both 18
Neither 19

The poll is also good news for George Osborne

“Chencellor – Good job – bad job?” GOOD BAD DK
George Osborne now 43 24 33
Alistair Darling in 2009 20 53 27

YouGov has been showing smaller Lib Dem shares compared with other pollsters and this might be due to its new party ID weightings. In spite of the election the Labour segment is still the largest and just one in eight of the sample is weighted to the Liberal Democrats.

If the phone pollsters that past vote weight also have the LDs down in the region of 17% then Clegg’s party could be worried.

YouGov’s new party ID weightings  
CONSERVATIVES 28.5
LABOUR 32.5
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 12
OTHERS 3
Don’t know 24

Mike Smithson

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