Who’ll be the 2010 Harriet Harman? As we embark on the contest to elect Gordon Brown’s successor let us just remind ourselves of the mess that most pundits and punters made of the deputy election in 2007. All the money was on Alan Johnson who became a very tight odds-on favourite. Nobody gave Hattie a chance. This was held under exactly the same rules as Labour will use in the coming encounter which, as can be seen, can make prediction…
Seat spreads CON LAB LD Betfair 319½-321 217½-220 82½-85½ Extrabet 316-321 218-223 78-82 SportingIndex 317-322 214-219 78-82 Majority betting CON NOM LAB LD Ladbrokes 5/4 4/6 25/1 66/1 Political Smarkets 39% 60% 3% 1%
Election Winning leader Alma mater 1945 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1950 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1951 Winston Churchill Non graduate 1955 Anthony Eden University of Oxford 1959 Harold Macmillan University of Oxford 1964 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1966 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1970 Edward Heath University of Oxford 1974 Feb Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1974 Oct Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1979 Margaret Thatcher University of Oxford 1983 Margaret Thatcher University of Oxford 1987 Margaret…
What happens when the novelty wears off? The papers this morning remind me of the media honeymoon that Mr. Brown enjoyed when he took over at Number 10 in June 2007. It was such a novelty not having Blair there any more that the media seemed to abandon its critical faculties. Well it’s the same this morning. The ending of the Labour and Brown era combined with the real shock of what’s transpired are giving the CON-LIB duo an amazing…
Expectations of a Leadership Bid launch next week   A further development in the Labour leadership campaign this evening to add to David Miliband’s earlier announcement is that Jon Cruddas seems very likely to stand, having apparently told the Compass Group that the party needs a new direction. Paul Waugh has tweeted to expect an announcement of a leadership bid next week. Cruddas stood for the Deputy Leadership 3 years ago as a voice from outside the elite and of…
Is he worth his odds-on favourite status? In the betting on the Labour leadership race the best you can get on David Miliband is a miserly 4/11. At this stage I think that this is crazy. By the time we get to the voting the the party will have digested last week’s defeat and thought more about what they are looking for. I don’t rule out the combative Ed Balls who could be seen as the best opposition leader to…
The point when power mattered more than ideology Most of us, I guess, are still trying to digest the breath-taking sequence of events of the past 24 hours and the extent to which Cameron and his team have gone to accommodate the desires of their Lib Dem coalition partners. I just wonder whether what we’ve seen is the equivalent of Blair “Clause 4” moment when that piece of Labour was ditched in the name of modernisation and electability. For more…