Election Night 2010 – the 10.30 thread
REVISED EXIT POLL: CON 305 LAB 255 LD 61 OTH 29 Next thread will appear at 11.30 Double Carpet www.electiongame.co.uk
Will the exit poll be as accurate as 2005?
Not long to wait now for the first news EXIT POLL SEATS: CON 307 LAB 255 LD 59 OTH 29 The results of what is almost certain to be the most eagerly awaited and most expensive poll of them all will be announced as voting closes at precisely 10 pm on BBC, ITV, and Sky News. This, of course is the exit poll that has been commissioned by the three broadcasters and will be based on 16,000 – 17,000 interviews…
Is this where Dave, Gord and Nick’s futures have been decided?
Not long to go. I’m on my way to London to take overnight in 5Live’s Election programme from 10am to 6am. Have a great night everybody Mike Smithson
Will the “Golden Rule” survive the night?
Will Labour be overstated again There is one “rule” of polling PB regulars will know well. We call it “The Golden Polling Rule”. This is that whenever polls have been tested against real election results it’s been the survey with Labour in the least favourable position that has been the most accurate. This is not just a modern phenomenon – but has going going on in Westminster, Euro and London Mayoral elections since at least the 1980s. Just look at…
Is Labour being flattered by the “don’t know” adjustments?
Populus without DK adjustment Unadjusted Reported CONSERVATIVES 37.1% 37% LABOUR 25.5% 28% LIB DEMS 28.4% 27% ICM without DK adjustment Unadjusted Reported CONSERVATIVES 37.3% 36% LABOUR 26.3% 28% LIB DEMS 26.3% 26% Do the formulas work in a 3-way fight? I’ve raised before here about the methodology that three of the phone pollsters use to deal with those in their polls who say they will be voting but won’t say who for. ICM and Populus two allocate a proportion of…
Turnout’s looking pretty good
Could it top the 70% threshold? From reports from around the country it seems that polling stations have been busy and that turnout looks set to quite high – certainly above the 61% of 2005. At one polling station near me the number who’d voted in the first hour was four times higher than at the same location last October for Bedford’s mayoral by election when it was over 30%. More young people seem to be turning out. This is,…
The opening markets
Seat spreads CON LAB LD Betfair 319½-321 217½-220 82½-85½ Extrabet 316-321 218-223 78-82 SportingIndex 317-322 214-219 78-82 Majority betting CON NOM LAB LD Ladbrokes 5/4 4/6 25/1 66/1 Political Smarkets 39% 60% 3% 1% This is basically a thread for a matter of record. So often people ask whether political betting is predictive and I always refer to the opening markets just as the polling station threw open their doors across the country. Site traffic: Yesterday our main servers dealt…
Marf heading the overnight threat
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