Will the exit poll be as accurate as 2005?

Will the exit poll be as accurate as 2005?

Not long to wait now for the first news


The results of what is almost certain to be the most eagerly awaited and most expensive poll of them all will be announced as voting closes at precisely 10 pm on BBC, ITV, and Sky News. This, of course is the exit poll that has been commissioned by the three broadcasters and will be based on 16,000 – 17,000 interviews that have been carried out by NOP and Ipsos-MORI at more than 120 polling stations throughout the day. .

Most of the chosen locations have been used at previous general elections for a key part of the analysis will be comparing what has happened at this election with last time. The data is being processed by a team of academics with the primary aim of producing a projection of what is likely to happen in terms of seats rather than vote shares.

Those involved have a lot to live up to for the 2005 exit poll projected a 66 seat Labour majority which is exactly what happened.

I just wonder whether the three-sided nature of today’s race will add to the complication and make their task harder.

You will probably be able to hear my views on the poll on the 5Live election programme that starts at 10pm. I’ll be there right through to 6am tomorrow morning.

Please note that new threads will appear hourly at 10.30, 11.30 etc all the way to 4.30

Mike Smithson

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