ICM Sunday Telegraph Apr 23 Apr 18 CONSERVATIVES 35% 33% LIB DEMS 31% 30% LABOUR 26% 28% ComRes S. Mirror/IoS Apr 24 Apr 20 CONSERVATIVES 34% 35% LIB DEMS 29% 27% LABOUR 28% 25% But the Lib Dems progress with both So our first two polls for tomorrow’s Sunday papers are out and provide mixed messages for the reds and blues but good news for the yellows. For the key development is that the yellow bubble hasn’t burst and the…
Lots of hints starting to emerge about the polls for the Sunday papers. Kratz reported this on an earlier thread: “Labour are losing ground in ICM to both the Lib Dems and the Tories. The gap between Tories and LD is greater than in the previous ICM but the LD share is higher once again. Sorry for talking in riddles.” Looking back over previous comments from Kratz he/she has been pretty good with poll predictions – the reason why I…
Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with the way Brown is doing his job..?” (MORI Apr 18) Satisfied Dissatisfied All questioned 35% 59% Lib Dem voters only 29% 65% Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with the way Cameron is doing his job..?” (MORI Apr 18) Satisfied Dissatisfied All questioned 45% 42% Lib Dem voters only 32% 56% With the talk continuing over whether Clegg would prop up Brown or not I thought I’d dig out Lib Dem voters splits from the latest MORI poll. The…
Why’s Labour not using such a traditionally effective medium? All elections are different in some way from what’s gone before as new campaigning techniques and opportunities come in, as new issues and concerns arise and as new candidates find alternative ways of interacting with the electorate. This one’s no exception. While much has rightly been made of the TV debates – by far the biggest innovation of the 2010 election – one major component of recent elections seems curiously absent this…
YouGov Daily Poll – Sun Apr 23 Apr 22 CONSERVATIVES 34% 34% LIB DEMS 29% 28% LABOUR 29% 29% It’s almost no change after the second debate This evening’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun is just out and apart from the one point lift for the Lib Dems it’s no change. This is the first poll where all the fieldwork followed the debate and both the red and blue teams might feel a tad disappointed not to have seen…
Majority betting NOM CON LAB OTH/LD Ladbrokes 8/13 6/4 16/1 20/1 Political Smarkets 60% 36% 6% 2% Mike Smithson
For interactive map go to PoliticsHome Dr Rob Ford (University of Manchester), Dr Will Jennings (University of Manchester), Dr Mark Pickup (Simon Fraser University) and Professor Christopher Wlezien (Temple University) explain their vote projection method now published and updated regularly at Politics Home. As PB readers and regulars know, interpreting the torrent of polling during an election campaign is a difficult task. The ‘horse race’ attracts widespread interest and can shape the tone of the campaign. Yet, true patterns of…
Wikimedia What’s the best betting option? For my Guardian election betting tip today I highlight a finding from this week’s MORI poll in which 78% of voters say the outcome of the election is important to them personally. The response level at this stage of a campaign to the same question was only exceeded in 1992. Then, it will be recalled, turnout was just under 78%. Clearly a combination of the TV debates and the hard-to-predict outcome is adding to…