PB Angus Reid Apr 12 Apr 11 CONSERVATIVES 38% 37% LABOUR 28% 26% LIB DEMS 22% 22% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 7% And the others total is the smallest yet from the firm There’s a new poll for Politicalbetting out from Angus Reid that sees Labour move to its highest point from the firm and others drop to their lowest level. What seems to be happening, and we’ve seen it elsewhere, is the the squeeze is being…
How much are local campaigns being affected? Talking to people across the parties in the past few days I’m getting a powerful impression that where the incumbent MP was singled out as prominent trougher then the mood of the electorate is very different. This matters most where the MP, like Jacqui Smith, is seeking to be re-elected but it’s also impacting on those candidates who are seeking to replace MPs who’ve stood aside. I’m told, for instance, that the mood…
PoliticsHome: YG aggregated regional data Apr 4 -11 Do the regional splits point to an overall Tory majority? Above is a table prepared for PoliticsHome by YouGov showing their aggregated data from a week’s polling broken down into the regional splits. What matters is the right hand block showing the variations from the 2005 result. To work out the swing in a particular region add the Tory plus figure to the Labour minus one and divide by two. Three trends…
ComRes: ITV News/Independent Apr 11 Apr 8 CONSERVATIVES 37% 39% LABOUR 30% 32% LIB DEMS 20% 16% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 5% The Independent has teamed up with ITV news to do two general election polls a week – the first of which appears this evening. The gap is the same as the last ComRes poll – the big difference being that both Labour and the Tories are down two each with Clegg’s party moving up four….
You can see more of Marf’s work at LondonSketchbook.com Meanwhile the gap gets closer with ICM ICM – Guardian Apr 11 Apr 9 CONSERVATIVES 37% 38% LABOUR 31% 30% LIB DEMS 20% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4.5% 5.5% Even though the changers are within the margin of error this poll might just cause a few jitters at Cameron Towers for the gap has closed a touch and the party is even further off that 40 point threshold….
The cover of the Labour manifesto Several polls due out tonight and I’m hoping for a Marf cartoon on the Labour manifesto. At least two of the polls won’t be out until 10pm and I plan to do a polling round-up of the day. Mike Smithson
My broad impression so far is that Labour has been smart to have the launch in front of an appreciative, presumably hand-picked, audience. Brown is a confidence politician and the more the crowd is behind him the better he comes over. That’s working out well – the only danger of this is if the media start commenting on it and this becomes the story. Let’s see how all this gets reported. As to the details – who cares? Elections are…
ICM Marginals poll Voted CON 2005 Voted LAB 2005 Voted LD 2005 B “I think I know who I’ll vote for but could change my mind” 18% 25% 31%