Come on you guys – follow the media narrative?

After doing my posting on the Populus marginals poll early yesterday I thought I’d try to make a quick buck by betting £257 on the “no overall majority” option in the Betfair overall majority market.

The price I got, was 1.9/1 and my reading was that this would tighten and then I’d be able to get out at a profit. With so many polls all pointing in one direction and the media reporting the election almost solely in these terms then I thought my view of what other gamblers would do would hold.

Since then two more polls have come out apparently reinforcing the point and what’s happened – the prices have barely moved. As I write the NOM price with Betfair has shifted a fraction to 1.84/1 – which in this context is almost no movement.

Ladbrokes which was offering 7/4 yesterday morning is still doing the same today.

The other bets I had early on Tuesday morning were on commons seat spreads with SportingIndex. I sold the Tories and bought Labour in the hope of making a quick few pounds when the markets shifted enough to close down the bets at a profit. What’s happened? The prices have moved by just two seats and the BUY level on SPIN reflects a Tory overall majority of 22 seats.

Whatever the polls might be saying the betting markets still believe that David Cameron is going to win with an overall majority and there’s very little money going against this.

And if you say well aren’t all gamblers Tories then you only have to look back to 2005 when the markets were much more pro-Labour than the eventual outcome.

Mike Smithson