Commons Library Research – 2009 local elections Is it their resource that’s making the difference in the marginals? This is to highlight the excellent piece put up on PB2 a few hours ago by Bunnco – in his series of what might be causing the bigger swings in the marginals. For in his second look at the issue he suggests that the massive decline in Labour councillors in the key seats together with the corresponding increase in Tory ones might…
And if so, are the odds worth it? After the abject failure of the Hoon-Hewitt plot, I commented that Brown would definitely lead Labour into the election and that the election would be on May 6. My reasoning was that the almost complete lack of support that was evident for Hoon and Hewitt’s position made Brown unassailable: it not only demonstrated Brown’s then current strength but would also so discourage any future plots from even getting that far. With Brown…
Young women – like the Tories but what about Dave? This is Ipsos-MORI’s polling “fact of the day”: Since 2005, the Conservatives have particularly gained ground among women, especially women aged 18-34. Among this age-group, the proportion of women saying they intend to vote Conservative has risen dramatically since the 2005 election (from 22% to 37%). This does not seem to be driven by satisfaction with David Cameron as party leader, however; over the last year women aged 18-34 were…
Ladbrokes politics markets What’s the best bet on this new market? Ladbrokes, which is now offering prices on every seat in Britain, has now introduced a new market which will both get us talking and, no doubt, parting with our money. The concept is similar to one the firm developed for the 2008 White House race – you’ve got to go down the list and decide which will be the first to be a Conservative gain. I’m completely intrigued by…
Times online Could Purnell become a thorn in the side of Brown Central? News has just come in that the one time Labour leadership contender, James Purnell, is to stand down at the general election. It will be recalled that the former Work and Pensions Secretary resigned from the cabinet as the polls closed on June 4th 2009 in a move that appeared designed to put pressure on Brown. He was expected to have been the flag-carrier for the Blairite…
CON 39% (39) LAB 32% (30) LD 18%(18) Here’s a poll to test the Andy Cooke analysis? The second YouGov daily tracker for the Sun is out and although the increase in the Labour share by 2 is well within the margin of error it does take us into what is clear hung parliament territory with the crude uniform national swing (UNS) seat calculators that simply apply a mathematical calculation in each seat to the 2005 result. This is going…
CON 40% (38) LAB 26% (25) LD 18% (20) But Labour gets its biggest AR share yet There’s a new PB/Angus Reid poll out this evening which shows both Labour and the Tories moving forward at the expense of the Lib Dems. The Labour share has continued the steady improvement from the 22% at the end of November. This evening’s 26% is the highest that the pollster has recorded since the PB/Angus Reid polling series began last October. Even though…
Research Director, Andy Morris, answers your questions (Every time there’s a new PB/Angus Reid poll a lot of comments are made here and elsewhere about the firm and I thought it useful if Andy Morris could write a post and be available to answer questions. A particular issue has been the lower Labour shares compared with other firms though it’s worth pointing out as well that since we started AR is the only pollster not to record a Tory share…