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Month: December 2009

Could the PBR point to an early election?

Could the PBR point to an early election?

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Will this be Labour’s last Set-Piece before Polling Day? The pre-Budget Report is when the government is meant to set out its spending plans for the year, although it’s more and more taken on the aspect of a mini-budget in its own right. In addition to the economic predictions and expenditure figures, last year’s PBR cut VAT, increased duty on alcohol, tobacco and petrol, and scheduled in increases in Income Tax and National Insurance. If today’s PBR is as active…

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The JackW “Against the Grain” slot

The JackW “Against the Grain” slot

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O Ye Of Little Faith It’s said in life only two certainties exist – the grim reapers of the Inland Revenue and the ultimate Grim Reaper. In the past year of Britains political life there would also appear to have been two certainties – A majority Conservative government and the Liberal Democrats gaining Watford, the latter still available at excellent odds !! Subsequent to the general election most political analysts have taken for granted Mrs Cameron boiling the eggs in…

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One in twenty say they will vote tactically

One in twenty say they will vote tactically

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The response to the PB polling question The week before last there was a thread in which site users were asked to suggest ideas that can be included in the regular polls that Angus Reid strategies carries out in the UK. There were dozens of different ideas and the following is the one that was chosen with the outcomes:- How will you chose which party to vote for? 29% – I will chose the party that will make me and…

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ICM data: Just 63pc of Blair voters sticking with Brown

ICM data: Just 63pc of Blair voters sticking with Brown

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..and Cameron has picked up 20% of them The detailed data from Sunday’s ICM poll is now out and provides another reminder of the massive task and possibly an opportunity for the Prime Minister – winning back those who voted for the party last time. One of the big issues that was always going to face Blair’s successor was to retain the extraordinary coalition that the former leader had created in 1997 when large swathes of middle England were persuaded…

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Populus Tory lead moves into single figures

Populus Tory lead moves into single figures

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CON 38%(39) LAB 30%(29) LD 20%(18) OTHERS % 11(14) This really is hung parliament territory As predicted in the previous thread this evening Populus poll for the Times has some good news for Brown Central following the party’s relatively good week – even though it is all well within the margin of error This is the closest the parties have been with the firm for exactly a year. In December 2008 the pollster reported a 4 point margin. There’s little…

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Will Gord get a Populus bonus after his PMQ success?

Will Gord get a Populus bonus after his PMQ success?

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Could another firm have the lead down to single figures? I’ve had it confirmed that the Populus December survey for the Times did take place over the weekend and if things are following their normal pattern we should find out about it tonight. This will be the first public poll to have been carried out wholly after Mr. Brown’s PMQ performance last Wednesday – an event that has reverberated throughout the Westminster village and is helping shape the media narrative….

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How are “others” likely to split as the race gets tighter?

How are “others” likely to split as the race gets tighter?

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YouGov for Channel 4 June 2009 Can Labour really expect to benefit most? The above is from the massive 32,268 sample YouGov poll taken just before the Euro Election last June and is just about the best resource we’ve got on the attitudes and backgrounds of those who, in that election at least, supported the “others” – the BNP, UKIP or the Greens. For given the continued very high shares that are being recorded for this segment this survey might…

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Just how much has the gap closed?

Just how much has the gap closed?

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UKPollingReport Has a “Hung Parliament” now dropped down the agenda? In preparation for my monthly polling slot for tonight’s “The Westminster Hour” on Radio 4 I’ve been having a good look at the numbers. Clearly in the immediate period after the conference season the Tories were doing better than they have been in the past three weeks. The overnight surveys from YouGov and ICM were the first since mid-November to be back in the 40s. By contrast the Labour shares…

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