Guardian What would be the impact of a defection? One of the early signs of what was to come from Brown Central was the ferocious campaign to undermine and eventually secure the sacking of Frank Field at the start of the Labour government. He had been brought in by Blair to “think the unthinkable” about welfare reform until the Brownies got there way. This is recounted at length in Tom Bower’s brilliant biography on Brown and the man who is…
Is this what ultimately will be the clincher? As we get closer to elections, it seems, there is one hardy topic that always emerges – that of the impact of negative campaigning and we saw in 1997, 2001 and 2005 how much of the Labour message was primarily about demonising the Tories. But what about negative voting? Do negative messages chime with what some of the electorate wants and what’s the impact? So does it matter in the current context…
Could this be the game-changer that Labour needs? The news that David Miliband has pulled himself out of the running for the EU High Representative post has added to the speculation that he might once again be considering a Labour leadership bid BEFORE the general election. What would be the impact of this? Is Labour’s unpopularity largely down to Brown and would the party led by Miliband stand a better chance in the election? Certainly there are many who think…
The “collective wisdom” view on key seat betting In table above we feature the first part of the predictions for key general election seats from a group of PB betting regulars who are modestly calling themselves “The PB Super Six”. Can I thank Peter the Punter and ScottP for pulling this together. The plan is to show all the seats where they have got bets on and the colour coding indicates where their money is going. This is part 1….
The Sun What does this say about Brown’s survival chances? The big overnight political betting story is the news that David Miliband won’t be going for the EU High Representative job – and all the speculation that this opens up not only about that appointment but the whole Labour leadership. Congratulations to Peter the Punter, Morus and others for picking up developments ahead of MSM and to Morus (Greg Callus), in particular, for his tip at 9.20pm on who might…
CON 39%(-1) LAB 29%(-1) LD 18%(nc) UKIP 4.3% (+2) BNP 2% (nc) GRN ???? SNP/PC ???? UKIP gets a two point boost Although the figures are different the trends in tonight Populus poll for the Times are broadly similar to that which we saw in the last poll – the Angus Reid one for PB. The Tories down a bit and there’s an increase in the overall share for others with UKIP moving up. The gap between the Tories and…
Should Mandy have avoided the attack on the Sun? Paul Waugh makes a valid point on his Evening Standard blog that the way Number 10 is dealing with the letter of condolence issue could be causing more damage. He writes: “We now have not just Peter Mandelson, but also housing minister Ian Austin claiming that this is all about The Sun’s decision to back the Tories.. First, the Prince of Darkness said that the tabloid’s story had to be seen…
..or is Labour using the threat to get its core vote out? Towards the end my conversation with Kevin Maguire on Radio 4’s “The Westminster Hour” the question arose of how the BNP would do in the Glasgow NE by election on Thursday. This followed reports that Labour officials have been telling the the media that the BNP might come third? But just how likely is this given that the BNP has never really got a foot-hold north of the…