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Month: November 2009

Could Oborne’s programme help the Lib Dems in Watford?

Could Oborne’s programme help the Lib Dems in Watford?

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Channel 4 What’ll it do to the top seat betting market? Word reaches me that Channel 4’s Dispatches programme tomorrow night might be helpful to the the Lib Dems in Watford – the constituency which, according to Ladbrokes, has seen the heaviest general election betting. I have not got any details whatsoever but we know that Oborne never gets involved with stuff that is run of the mill. Watford is currently Labour-held but with both the Tories and Lib Dems…

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Are the Greens’ polling numbers the most suspect?

Are the Greens’ polling numbers the most suspect?

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Is this a polite way of saying “I’m not voting”? Another poll this morning, the ComRes one for the Indy on Sunday, has a huge 19 percent share for “others” including 6 percent for the Greens. This is out of line with other firms but follows a 5 percent share in the ComRes poll at the end of October and, as we might recall, what proved to be a wildly optimistic 15 percent in the firm’s final survey ahead of…

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And this was after Brown’s “good week”!

And this was after Brown’s “good week”!

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CON 39%(40) LAB 25%(27) LD 17%(18) OTHERS 19% (15) [LAB/CON 64.1% (67.5)] Another week goes by and two more polls come out which will add to the discomfort at Number 10. The first from Comres is above has the Tories slipping a point to below 40, Labour slipping two points to 25 with “others” seeing a massive boost to 19% – which is the biggest proportion in any survey since the EU election effect had worked its way out of…

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“Tories 14 points ahead in two polls”

“Tories 14 points ahead in two polls”

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Tory pressman Henry Macrory has just Twittered to say “Two polls tonight will give Conservatives a 14pt lead”. I assume that these are YouGov and ComRes. So it’s no change with the lead from YouGov but a one point increase from ComRes. Mike Smithson

Against The Grain – A Labour Recovery?

Against The Grain – A Labour Recovery?

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A Guest slot by Jack W (PBers in their quiet, contemplative moments will no doubt worry how a PB Titan spends his reflective moments after having polished his betting halo, plotting the next Jacobite Rising and single handedly erasing the balance of payments deficit by stint of fine pie exports alone. You need concern yourself no more. For having been prevailed upon to lift the literary status of PB to Nobel literary standards it is clear that my every spare…

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Is Michael Thrasher right about a hung parliament?

Is Michael Thrasher right about a hung parliament?

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Why won’t the pre-1997 polls comparison die? Michael Thrasher gave an interview for Sky News yesterday afternoon in which he built upon the article written for their website, inferring that the election is heading towards a hung parliament. In it, he made various claims and inferences that really shouldn’t be allowed to stand and which I find quite astonishing from such a senior expert in the subject. To summarise: He claimed that the Tories are struggling to break through 40%. In fact,…

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Is this a clue about an early election?

Is this a clue about an early election?

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Are people reading too much into this? I suppose we will see many more alerts like this but there’s a bit of a flurry tonight over this job ad from Chris Bryant – the Rhonda MP and Europe minister. Why does this job end on March 31s? Is this a clue to the election date? A member of the Tory PR team twittered it and one or two people have sent me emails. With all due respect to Chris Bryant…

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What does Glasgow NE say about Labour’s Scottish chances?

What does Glasgow NE say about Labour’s Scottish chances?

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How many losses do we expect them to suffer? At the General Election on May 5th 2005 Labour won 40 of the 59 seats north of the border on just 38.9% of the vote. No wonder that Blair “forgot” about his 1997 manifesto commitment on electoral reform. Since the election they lost Dunfermline to the Lib Dems in 2006 and Glasgow East to the SNP in 2008. This was partly balanced by the “gain” overnight of the Speaker’s seat. So…

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